Wood Mackenzie Report: China’s Belt & Road Initiative Achieves a Decade of Success, Unveiling 128 GW Installed Power Capacity with a Renewables Focus

Over the past decade, Chinese companies have played a pivotal role in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with a noteworthy investment of approximately US$200 billion. This initiative has seen the successful implementation of over 300 overseas power projects, collectively contributing 128 GW of power—surpassing Australia’s 2022 installed capacity by 1.3 times.

While this marks a significant accomplishment, challenges have arisen, prompting the cancellation or postponement of more than 20% of projects, as indicated by a report from Wood Mackenzie titled ‘Belt & Road at 10: Powering on through Growing Pains.’ The report sheds light on the considerable achievements and obstacles faced by Chinese firms in the first decade of the BRI.

Asia has emerged as the primary hub for BRI power projects, claiming 75% of the total capacity. Among the completed ventures, 62 coal and 30 gas power projects constitute 57% of the overall project capacity. Renewables, including wind, solar, and hydro, make up 68% of projects and contribute 37% of capacity, showcasing a noteworthy shift with renewables accounting for 47% of newbuild capacity in 2022 compared to 19% a decade ago.

Wood Mackenzie identifies Pakistan, Vietnam, and Indonesia as the top three markets for BRI power projects among 72 countries. The top 15 markets collectively represent 103 GW, constituting 80% of all completed projects.

Despite these successes, the report emphasizes challenges faced by Chinese companies in developing markets. Out of 481 monitored BRI projects, 72 were either canceled or put on hold, with Asia and Africa contributing 60% and 32% of the total capacity affected, respectively. Policy changes and increased pressure to reduce carbon emissions have particularly impacted coal power projects.

Yet, the outlook for Chinese overseas BRI power projects remains positive, with a steady pipeline of projects estimated at around 13 GW per year. Notably, renewables take center stage, comprising 57% of the planned 80 GW capacity. Asia and Africa are expected to remain key markets, jointly representing 93% of future projects.

Wood Mackenzie’s Vice President, Alex Whitworth, highlights that despite policy shifts and challenges, the BRI’s influence on power markets is set to grow, with an additional 80 GW under construction or in the planning stage. China’s evolving strategy indicates a heightened focus on renewables and increased direct investment compared to earlier years of the BRI