IEA Report Highlights Misalignment Between Countries’ Renewable Energy Plans and COP28 Goals

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report highlights a significant discrepancy between countries’ renewable energy ambitions and the deployment targets established at COP28. The report, titled “The COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap,” underscores the urgent need for enhanced action to meet global renewable energy goals.

According to the report, only 14 of the 194 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have explicit 2030 targets for renewable capacity. These commitments collectively amount to 1,300 gigawatts (GW) of renewables by 2030, merely 12% of the 11,000 GW required to achieve the tripling objective set at COP28 in Dubai. China dominates this NDC total, with a clear target of 1,200 GW of wind and solar by the decade’s end.

Despite the modest NDC figures, the IEA’s analysis reveals more optimistic domestic ambitions for renewables. An examination of policies, plans, and estimates from nearly 150 countries shows an intention to install around 8,000 GW of renewables globally by 2030, covering 70% of the required capacity to reach the tripling goal.

To attain the 11,000 GW target, the IEA stresses that the pace of renewable energy deployment must accelerate in most regions, including the European Union, the United States, and India. The report also calls for increased efforts in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. China’s rapid renewable expansion is seen as pivotal, with the country on track to exceed its 2030 targets by 2.5 times.

“This report makes clear that the tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “By delivering on the goals agreed at COP28 – including tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 – countries worldwide have a major opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable, and sustainable energy system.”

The report notes that annual renewable capacity additions have tripled since the Paris Agreement in 2015, driven by policy support, economies of scale, and technological advancements. Solar power is projected to account for half of the future capacity identified by governments. If countries meet their 2030 ambitions, installed solar capacity will surpass hydropower as the world’s largest source of installed renewable energy.

Key challenges for renewable deployment include lengthy permitting processes, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, the need for efficient integration of variable renewables, and high financing costs, especially in emerging and developing economies. The report calls for reduced financing costs to improve the viability of renewable projects and support their pre-development stages.

In April, the IEA emphasized the need for a sixfold increase in global energy storage capacity to meet the 2030 renewable energy targets. This underscores the critical role of energy storage in supporting the expansion and reliability of renewable energy sources.