US Presidential Election Outcome May Not Slow Cleantech Momentum, Says Report

The upcoming US presidential election could significantly influence global energy dynamics, but Rystad Energy’s latest analysis suggests that the domestic renewable energy and cleantech sectors will continue to thrive regardless of the election’s outcome. The report indicates that states traditionally aligned with the Republican party, such as Oklahoma, Iowa, Florida, and Texas, are poised to be major players in the cleantech revolution due to substantial investments in manufacturing and infrastructure.

By 2030, these states are projected to account for 57% of all US battery cell manufacturing capacity and 59% of solar PV cell and module production. Additionally, they are expected to produce 95% of all hydrogen and 83% of carbon capture capacity. This robust growth underscores the economic benefits and transformative impact of cleantech, particularly in swing states, which could be won by either political party in the upcoming election.

Despite concerns about the Republican party’s historical stance on climate change and renewable energy, cleantech has emerged as a bipartisan success story in the US. Rystad Energy’s analysis highlights that many cleantech projects, including solar, batteries, hydrogen, and carbon capture, are located in Republican strongholds. The economic benefits generated by these projects have fostered widespread support, suggesting that cleantech will continue to expand even under a potential Republican presidency.

Lars Nitter Havro, Head of Energy Macro Research at Rystad Energy, emphasized that the economic momentum behind cleantech is likely to remain robust regardless of the election’s outcome. The report notes that even during Donald Trump’s previous presidency, cleantech initiatives persisted, and significant onshore wind capacity was added despite his administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Looking ahead to the possibility of a Republican win in the 2024 presidential election, the report suggests that while there may be efforts to roll back or weaken climate and environmental policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the likelihood of a complete repeal remains low. This is due to concerns about competitiveness, job creation, and the need to counter China’s influence in the renewable energy sector. However, a Republican-controlled White House and Senate could lead to reduced environmental regulations and streamlined permitting for fossil fuel projects.

The legislative landscape may also see changes, with proposals like Senator J.D. Vance’s “Drive American Act” seeking to repeal electric vehicle (EV) tax credits and incentivize internal combustion engine vehicles. However, shifts in stance, such as President Trump’s recent endorsement of some EV incentives influenced by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, suggest potential policy adjustments that may not entirely dismantle current EV incentives.

While the cleantech sector faces potential challenges under a Republican administration, the overall momentum toward renewable energy and decarbonization in the US is expected to persist. The ongoing investment and economic benefits associated with cleantech projects indicate a continued commitment to advancing the country’s clean energy transition, regardless of the political climate.