Rystad Energy: China Sets New Record with 60 GW of Solar PV Installed in Q1 2025, Driven by Rooftop Boom and Policy Push

China installed a record-breaking 60 gigawatts (GW) of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the first quarter of 2025, marking the highest first-quarter addition in the nation’s history, according to research and analysis from Rystad Energy. Of this, 36 GW—or 60%—came from rooftop PV systems, setting a new milestone for distributed solar deployment.

The surge in installations is largely attributed to a push to meet policy deadlines outlined by the National Energy Administration (NEA) in new guidelines released in October 2024, which took effect in May 2025. These directives aim to promote self-consumption of distributed solar energy to alleviate grid congestion, enhance grid reliability, and reduce reliance on centralized power generation.

The regulatory shift supports China’s dual carbon goals: to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It is also steering the distributed PV sector toward a more sustainable, market-oriented growth path. While limitations on grid access for distributed solar projects may introduce revenue uncertainty for developers, they are also expected to accelerate the development of carbon trading and green certificate markets, offering new revenue avenues.

Looking ahead, China’s solar PV market is expected to maintain steady annual growth through 2030. Rystad Energy forecasts that the rooftop PV installation boom will continue into Q2 2025, potentially pushing total distributed solar capacity additions for the year to 130 GW, with 92 GW from commercial and industrial (C&I) projects and 38 GW from residential installations.

Meanwhile, utility-scale PV installations are also projected to reach new highs, with 167 GW expected in 2025. This growth is being fueled by a robust project pipeline and accelerated efforts by provincial governments to fulfill the targets of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which ends this year.

However, changes in grid access rules are expected to have a profound impact on the C&I solar sector. Under the new framework, full grid access has been revoked for C&I projects. While projects up to 6 megawatts (MW) can still self-consume and partially sell surplus electricity back to the grid, larger C&I systems—over 6 MW—must fully utilize their power onsite, as they are no longer permitted to feed electricity into the grid.

As China continues its aggressive solar rollout, the policy-driven growth in distributed PV is poised to reshape the energy landscape, particularly for the commercial and industrial sectors adapting to the evolving regulatory environment.

Yicong Zhu, Vice President, Renewables & Power Research, Rystad Energy, said: “While these new guidelines are pushing China forward, they’re having a dual impact on the C&I sector that typically has limited or no grid connection. On one hand, increased self-consumption in C&I rooftop PV projects is easing grid-connection challenges and helping ease grid congestion across the country. The rules are also helping to accelerate progress in carbon trading and green certificate markets, with storage installations expected to rise. However, the added complexity in purchase agreements may introduce new uncertainty and potentially weigh on project economics, which could dissuade developers, investors and financiers.”