EUPD Research has released its latest market study, “India’s Solar Surge: The Next Looming PV Price Shock?”, offering a data-backed assessment of India’s rapidly expanding photovoltaic manufacturing ecosystem. The report indicates that the country is transitioning from a government-driven capacity buildout to a more competitive, technology-aligned and sustainability-focused manufacturing era.
According to EUPD Research, India is set to add nearly 213 GWdc of new solar capacity between 2025 and 2029, averaging approximately 42 GWdc annually. At the same time, module manufacturing capacity could surpass 280 GW by 2030, while solar cell capacity is projected to grow from 26 GW in 2025 to around 171 GW by 2030, positioning India among the world’s largest integrated PV manufacturing hubs.
The report notes that this rapid scale-up is creating significant export potential. At a 65% capacity-utilization level—considered a breakeven threshold—India could achieve nearly 143 GW of module export capacity by 2030. With the U.S. market facing tighter trade restrictions, manufacturers are expected to shift strategic focus toward Europe, the Middle East and Africa to sustain utilization rates and diversify buyers.
“India’s solar manufacturing surge has delivered scale, and the focus must now shift to global competitiveness,” said Markus A. W. Hoehner, Founder & CEO of EUPD Group. “Identifying resilient markets and meeting emerging sustainability and quality standards will be critical for long-term success.”
The report further details India’s improving price position. The cost gap between Indian and Chinese TOPCon modules has narrowed from 9 to 5.7 US¢/W from early 2024 to October 2025, driven by improvements in automation, vertical integration and production efficiency. However, EUPD Research cautions that minimum sustainable prices in India remain 14–17% higher compared with China and Southeast Asia, signaling the need for continued technological refinement.
India’s logistics advantage is also emerging as a competitive differentiator—freight to Europe constitutes only 5% of module prices, compared with 8.7% for shipments from China, and shipping-related emissions are approximately 65% lower. These factors align well with Europe’s tightening sustainability and carbon-related requirements.
EUPD Research states that the proposed EU-India Free Trade Agreement could further accelerate growth by enabling potential mutual recognition of testing and certification, and opening avenues for joint investment and technology cooperation.
“India’s expanding manufacturing base aligns with regions seeking diversified and transparent supply chains,” said Rajan Kalsotra, Senior Consultant, EUPD Research. “Sustaining competitiveness amid global oversupply will require early alignment with new regulations, stronger ESG performance and sharper market targeting.”
The study concludes that long-term leadership will depend on advances in high-efficiency technologies, stronger innovation pipelines, compliance with evolving European standards, and data-driven market selection. EUPD Research emphasizes that speed, precision and focused execution will define the next phase of India’s global solar manufacturing presence.
Discover more from SolarQuarter
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
