Africa’s Energy Future: Balancing Clean Power And Hydrocarbon Potential For 600 Million People – Report

Energy poverty remains a major challenge across Africa, where nearly 600 million people still lack access to electricity. Many rely on traditional fuels like wood and biomass for cooking, which are polluting and inefficient. Despite these challenges, the continent is rich in natural resources, offering a path to rapidly improve energy access. Africa has substantial oil and gas reserves, estimated at 214 billion barrels of oil equivalent, alongside world-class solar and wind potential. About 40% of the world’s best solar resources are located in Africa, and the continent also has excellent wind and hydropower potential. In addition, Africa is a leading producer of critical minerals such as cobalt, platinum, and manganese, with growing outputs of copper, lithium, and rare earth elements, all essential for green technologies.

Despite this immense potential, Africa’s energy development is often slowed by weak regulations, underdeveloped local gas markets, limited finance, and risks associated with investment. Global attention sometimes emphasizes emissions from Africa, even though the continent contributes only 3.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To address the energy deficit, a dual-track approach is necessary, combining clean energy expansion with optimized use of hydrocarbons.

Clean energy can rapidly improve electricity access. Wood Mackenzie projects Africa’s solar and wind capacity to grow by almost 600% in the next decade, though from a very low base. Given the financial constraints of many public utilities, investment should focus on decentralized, bottom-up solutions. Mini-grids, solar-and-storage projects, and off-grid power supply have proven effective in connecting rural populations. Capital formation remains the key challenge, as Africa attracts just over 2% of global energy investment. Increasing concessional and blended financing, along with strategic investment from China, could accelerate renewable projects across the continent.

At the same time, Africa must maximize its hydrocarbon resources. Only a third of discovered oil and gas has been commercialized, leaving significant untapped potential. Countries like Nigeria aim to double oil production to 3 million barrels per day and gas output to 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. Angola is pursuing increased liquids production outside OPEC. Revenues from oil and gas are expected to average $109 billion annually, supporting economic growth. Natural gas is particularly important for replacing diesel and fuel oil in power generation and industry. Governments are improving regulations and implementing gas master plans to expand domestic consumption and power capacity.

Africa is also taking steps to limit upstream emissions, which currently account for less than 9% of global upstream emissions. Initiatives such as anti-flaring laws, carbon-neutrality policies, carbon capture projects, and low-carbon offshore developments are being pursued. The African Energy Bank has been established to support funding for smaller and marginal fields.

With a projected population of 2.5 billion by 2050, Africa faces a critical choice. Only a balanced strategy that develops both clean energy and hydrocarbon resources can ensure energy access, drive industrialization, and prevent future generations from enduring persistent energy poverty.