IEA’s Renewables 2024 Report: Accelerating Global Renewable Energy Capacity And Overcoming Challenges To Meet 2030 Goals – Report

The Renewables 2024 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a comprehensive outlook on the future of renewable energy globally, focusing on the expected developments and challenges through 2030. The report reveals that renewable energy capacity is on track to increase by 2.7 times by 2030, outpacing current governmental targets by almost 25%. This surge is driven by the increasing cost-competitiveness of renewables, supported by policy measures in approximately 140 countries. While solar and wind energy are set to dominate this expansion, contributing 95% of the new capacity, the report highlights that more effort is required to meet the ambitious goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity set at COP28.

China is forecast to lead this expansion, contributing 60% of the new capacity through 2030, having already surpassed its 1,200 GW solar and wind target by 2024. While Europe and the U.S. are expected to double their renewable capacity additions, India is identified as the fastest-growing major market. The Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. and competitive auctions in the EU are significant drivers of this growth.

Despite the rapid pace of progress, significant challenges remain. Issues related to policy, financing, permitting, and grid integration could slow expansion in certain regions. Grid infrastructure, in particular, is highlighted as a bottleneck, with a backlog of 1,650 GW of renewable projects awaiting grid connection globally. The report emphasizes the need for enhanced policies to ensure that grid development keeps pace with renewable energy deployment. Additionally, supply chain issues, especially in the wind turbine manufacturing sector, could pose hurdles unless more investment is made to avoid bottlenecks by 2030.

One of the notable trends is the declining cost of solar photovoltaics (PV), which has made solar the leading renewable energy technology. New solar capacity added between 2024 and 2030 is expected to account for 80% of the growth in renewable power. However, the solar PV industry faces challenges such as oversupply, which has led to a sharp drop in module prices and put smaller manufacturers at risk of bankruptcy.

While solar and wind are set to dominate, other renewable technologies like bioenergy, geothermal, and concentrated solar power are expected to see limited growth due to a lack of policy support. Hydrogen is projected to play a minimal role, contributing just 1% to global renewable capacity growth by 2030.

The report also underscores the importance of renewable energy in sectors like transport, industry, and heating, which are increasingly being decarbonized through the use of renewable electricity. However, while renewables are expected to make up nearly half of global electricity generation by 2030, fossil fuels will still account for 80% of global energy consumption.

The summary and conclusion of the report stress that while global progress in renewable energy expansion is promising, further efforts are needed to meet the ambitious global goals. Policy improvements, investment in grid infrastructure, and overcoming financing and permitting challenges are crucial for achieving the desired growth trajectory. Without such measures, the gap between current renewable energy growth and the net-zero emissions scenario will persist, underscoring the urgency for enhanced global action.