Transforming The Global Energy Landscape: Achieving A 1.6°C Future With 44% Renewable Energy By 2050 – Report

The global energy system is on the brink of significant transformation, driven by a rapid decline in the costs of solar, wind, and battery technologies. In 2023, solar installations surged by 60%, reaching 360 gigawatt-hours of alternating current (GWac). Electric vehicles (EVs) are now expected to account for 23% of new passenger car sales, a dramatic increase from just 3% four years ago. Additionally, for the first time, investments in renewable energy infrastructure surpassed those in oil and gas.

To achieve a sustainable energy future and limit global warming to 1.6 degrees Celsius, experts emphasize the need for three key actions. First, we must clean up and expand the power sector, focusing on the rapid growth of solar, wind, and battery storage capacities. Second, it is essential to electrify nearly every aspect of life that can be electrified. Third, we need to address emissions that are hard to eliminate from sectors such as heavy industry, aviation, steel, and cement.

Current projections suggest three potential warming scenarios: 1.6, 1.9, or 2.2 degrees Celsius. According to Rystad Energy’s research, if the world were to experience a rise of 2.2 degrees, the pace of clean technology deployment would need to slow, which is counterproductive to urgent decarbonization efforts. To align with a 1.9-degree scenario, the world needs to maintain recent progress in clean technology development. However, achieving the 1.6-degree target requires rapid technological advancements.

The report highlights how the adoption rates of clean technologies like renewables and EVs are now outpacing earlier disruptive innovations such as automobiles, the internet, and cell phones. Currently, renewables account for over one-third of global electricity production. To meet the 1.6-degree scenario, solar and wind energy must grow to 44% of the primary energy supply by 2050. In contrast, the 1.9-degree scenario only requires a 25% share. The supply chains for solar modules are also expanding rapidly, with an expected annual capacity of 1.65 terawatts direct current (TWdc) by the end of 2024, a 63% increase in just one year. This economic advantage of renewables over fossil fuels is expected to increase as capacity grows.

To meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement, deep decarbonization is needed across all economic sectors, which will require a diverse range of technologies. The first step involves expanding renewable energy sources, as electricity generation alone contributed 15 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2023, accounting for 39% of global emissions. A rapid increase in solar and wind capacity, alongside the phasing out of coal, is crucial.

The second step is to electrify as many sectors as possible, including transportation and industry, which currently depend on fossil fuels. Maximizing the potential for electrification in these areas could account for 43% of the emissions reductions needed for the 1.6-degree scenario.

The final step involves addressing residual emissions that cannot be eliminated through electrification. This requires advancing technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), hydrogen-based fuels, and biofuels. Although these technologies are still developing, significant progress is needed in technical, economic, and regulatory areas to encourage investment.

While the transition to a cleaner energy future is challenging, there are promising strategies that can help achieve more ambitious climate goals. For instance, reducing methane emissions, which are highly potent greenhouse gases, can significantly impact short-term climate change. Innovative agricultural practices can cut methane emissions by up to 97%, using far fewer resources than traditional methods. Additionally, utilizing land effectively, such as integrating solar farms with agriculture, can meet energy demands with minimal land use, making it a viable option for achieving climate targets.