Wood Mackenzie Solar Summit: U.S. Solar Industry Set for 502 GWdc Growth by 2035, Amid Policy and Market Uncertainties

At the Wood Mackenzie Solar and Energy Storage Summit, Sylvia Leyva Martinez, Principal Analyst for North America Utility-Scale Solar, delivered an optimistic forecast for the U.S. solar sector, predicting that annual installations will surpass 40 GWdc on average through 2035. Over the next decade, the industry is expected to contribute around 502 GWdc of new capacity to the national grid.

Leyva Martinez emphasized the consistent upward trend in solar capacity growth, forecasting annual additions between 41 GWdc and 50 GWdc from 2025 to 2035. However, she warned that fluctuations in policy could greatly influence these estimates.

Leyva Martinez noted that their forecasts indicate a possible 24% increase in a high-case scenario and a 25% decrease in a low-case scenario relative to the base case. She emphasized that the future of the Inflation Reduction Act and other policy initiatives will be critical to the realization of projects, acknowledging that many variables could shift in the current uncertain policy landscape.

The presentation also highlighted the swift expansion of U.S. solar manufacturing capacity. Leyva Martinez pointed out that domestic manufacturing has experienced exponential growth over the past three years but cautioned that restrictive trade policies could threaten future investment in the sector.

U.S. module manufacturing capacity is expected to rise significantly, growing from 17 GW in 2023 to a potential 144 GW by 2027, alongside planned expansions in wafer and cell production.

Leyva Martinez also pointed to several major uncertainties that could impact the industry’s trajectory, including:

• The challenge of keeping up with rapidly increasing electricity demand in the coming years
• A possible shortfall in gas turbine availability before 2029
• Ongoing political uncertainty, especially around tariff policies
• The future stability and implementation of tax credits and other provisions under the Inflation Reduction Act

Leyva Martinez concluded by stating that the Trump administration will need to carefully balance its ambitions for AI and data center growth with the current energy landscape. She noted that the combination of market fluctuations and policy dynamics is contributing to uncertainty in solar project development and emphasized that the industry must navigate these challenges with caution.