Solar Power Drives U.S. Electricity Generation Growth To 4,423 BkWh By 2027

U.S. electricity generation is set to grow steadily over the next two years, with solar power emerging as the main driver of this increase. Total electricity generation by the U.S. electric power sector stood at about 4,260 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025. According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, power generation is expected to rise by 1.1% in 2026 and by a stronger 2.6% in 2027, reaching around 4,423 billion kilowatt-hours.

Traditional dispatchable power sources such as natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants together accounted for about 75% of total electricity generation in 2025. However, their combined share is expected to decline to around 72% by 2027. At the same time, renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind, continue to expand their role in the power mix. The combined share of solar and wind generation is forecast to increase from about 18% in 2025 to roughly 21% in 2027.

Utility-scale solar is expected to be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in the country. Solar generation is projected to rise sharply from 290 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 424 billion kilowatt-hours by 2027. Nearly 70 gigawatts of new solar capacity are scheduled to come online during 2026 and 2027. This represents a 49% increase in total U.S. solar operating capacity compared with levels at the end of 2025.

Texas is expected to lead much of this growth in utility-scale solar. Solar generation within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid is forecast to nearly double, rising from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by 2027. Battery energy storage is also expanding quickly in the region to help manage daily changes in solar output. Battery capacity in ERCOT is expected to grow from about 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027.

Wind power growth, however, is slowing in some traditional wind-heavy regions. In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator region, wind generation is expected to remain mostly flat through 2027, averaging just over 100 billion kilowatt-hours each year. Even so, solar projects are beginning to expand in this region, with solar generation expected to increase from 31 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 46 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027.

Natural gas remains the largest source of electricity generation in the United States, although its share has been declining from a peak of 42% in 2024. Natural gas-fired generation is expected to total 1,696 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, similar to 2025 levels, before rising slightly to 1,711 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027. As total power demand grows faster, natural gas’s share of generation is expected to fall to 39% by 2027. Growth in gas-fired generation is strongest in ERCOT and PJM, partly driven by rising electricity demand from data centers.

Coal-fired power generation rose sharply in 2025 due to colder weather and higher natural gas prices. However, planned plant retirements are expected to reverse this trend. Coal generation is forecast to decline by an average of 5% each year, falling to 661 billion kilowatt-hours by 2027, reducing coal’s share of power generation to 15%.