India’s Residential Rooftop Solar Market Could Reach 132 GW by 2030: ISMA

India’s residential rooftop solar market could scale to around 132 GW by 2030 from approximately 17 GW of installed capacity, with annual installations projected at 9–15 GW between 2026 and 2030, according to a report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA).

In its Market Sizing and Growth Outlook report, ISMA estimated that nearly 115 GW of residential rooftop solar potential remains untapped. The association said this could create sustained demand for domestically manufactured solar cells, modules, inverters and balance-of-system components.

The assessment is based on factors including national residential electricity consumption, household housing characteristics and distribution utility tariffs. ISMA said the projected growth could support a sustained demand pipeline across India’s rooftop solar and domestic manufacturing ecosystem.

The residential rooftop solar market is entering a phase of sustained expansion, with annual installations expected to remain between 9 GW and 15 GW through 2030. According to ISMA, the projected growth could create opportunities across the manufacturing, EPC, installation, system integration and other segments of the rooftop solar value chain.

The report also identifies an “affordability effect”, with rooftop solar adoption expanding beyond states where project economics are naturally more favourable. ISMA attributed part of this broader adoption to the PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana, which has expanded access to rooftop solar for residential consumers.

The government launched PM Surya Ghar in February 2024 with a target of installing rooftop solar systems in one crore households by March 2027. As of July 22, 2026, the scheme had supported the installation of 3,972,447 rooftop solar systems covering 4,802,717 households, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.

ISMA Secretary General Amit Manohar said that continuity of the rooftop solar programme beyond March 2027 would be important for maintaining market momentum. He called for early clarity on the programme’s next phase, including consideration of a potential PM Surya Ghar 2.0, to provide greater visibility to consumers and industry stakeholders.

The association said policy continuity would also help manufacturers and other stakeholders plan investments, expand production capacity and develop domestic supply chains.

ISMA’s projections indicate that the expected growth in residential rooftop solar could strengthen demand for locally manufactured components while supporting the broader development of India’s rooftop solar ecosystem through 2030.