Uganda’s Bold Leap: IEA-Supported Energy Transition Plan Unveiled at COP28

In a significant move to address economic, social, and climate goals, Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development has launched a comprehensive Energy Transition Plan. The plan, revealed at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, outlines a robust strategy to propel the country towards universal energy access by 2030 and aims to reach net-zero emissions from its energy sector by 2065. Developed in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA), the plan emphasizes responsible leveraging of Uganda’s energy advantages to ensure secure, affordable, and sustainable energy for all citizens. The ambitious initiative aligns with Uganda’s commitments under the Paris Agreement and showcases a clear roadmap for economic growth and development.

The analysis carried out with the support of the International Energy Agency (IEA), presented at COP28 indicates that implementing the Energy Transition Plan would position Uganda to achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement by 2030. Furthermore, the country could attain net-zero emissions from its energy sector by 2065, opening the door to setting an economy-wide climate neutrality target around the same year.

To realize the net-zero goal by 2065, the plan highlights the need for annual clean energy investments of USD 8 billion by the end of the decade. Nearly 90% of this financing is earmarked for projects focusing on enhancing energy access and expanding clean energy capacity across the nation.

Uganda’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, expressed optimism about the plan, stating, “This Energy Transition Plan marks a huge step forward in our efforts to ensure every person in Uganda has access to secure, affordable and sustainable energy. The plan shows how Uganda’s major energy advantages can be leveraged responsibly to meet our Government’s broader objectives.” 

The core of the Energy Transition Plan builds upon Uganda’s existing energy policies, with a focus on expanding low-emissions electricity nationwide. Currently, 99% of Uganda’s grid is powered by renewables. The plan envisions a 14% annual growth in electricity generation, maintaining a near-total share of low-emissions energy sources in the overall electricity mix.

Solar power is identified as the leading source of low-cost generation, leveraging Uganda’s abundant solar resources. Additionally, hydro and geothermal resources are projected to meet over one-quarter of electricity generation by 2050, complemented by the introduction of nuclear power facilities in the early 2030s.

The path to achieving universal energy access in Uganda by 2030 involves connecting 800,000 households annually. While challenging, this rate of progress is not unprecedented, as demonstrated by countries like Kenya, Rwanda, Bangladesh, and India over the past decade. The plan also aims to deploy over 1 million cleaner cooking stoves each year to achieve universal access to cleaner cooking by 2030.

Uganda’s abundance of domestic resources, including critical minerals and hydrocarbons, plays a pivotal role in its energy transition. With oil production slated to commence in 2025, along with ongoing projects in graphite and rare earths, Uganda is well-positioned to meet growing domestic oil demand and contribute to economic growth through sustainable harnessing of its resources.

The Energy Transition Plan underscores the importance of strong partnerships and a significant role for the private sector in realizing its objectives. The private sector is expected to substantially increase its investments in Uganda’s electricity system, potentially creating 220,000 additional jobs in the energy sector by 2030.