AES Reaffirms 2025 Outlook and Long-Term Growth Targets

The AES Corporation has reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, reaffirming its full-year guidance and long-term growth targets, despite a year-over-year decline in earnings. The company continues to advance its renewable energy expansion while strengthening its financial position through strategic asset sales and utility investments.

“Our long-term contracted business model continues to demonstrate its resiliency to tariffs and economic policies, and we are reaffirming our 2025 guidance and long-term growth rate targets,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and Chief Executive Officer.  “Our exposure to US import tariffs is de minimis, as we currently have all major equipment either on site, or contracted for domestic production, through 2027.  We see demand from our key corporate customers as strong, especially among hyperscalers, where we are the global market leader.”

“This quarter, we saw meaningful year-over-year growth in our Renewables and Utilities SBUs, directly attributable to new projects brought online and higher rate base investment,” said Stephen Coughlin, AES Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.  “With the sale of a minority interest in our captive insurance company, AGIC, we have already achieved our full year 2025 asset sale proceeds target of $400 to $500 million.”

Strategic Accomplishments

• PPA Backlog: AES’s PPA backlog stands at 11.7 GW, including 5.3 GW currently under construction.
• Energy Projects: The company completed the construction of 643 MW of energy storage and solar projects and is on track to add 3.2 GW of new projects to its operating portfolio by the end of 2025.
• New Contracts: AES signed or was awarded new long-term PPAs totaling 443 MW of solar and energy storage capacity.
• Regulatory Approvals: In April 2025, AES Indiana received final regulatory approval for the 170 MW Crossvine solar-plus-storage project, expected to come online in 2027.
• Asset Sales: The company reached its 2025 asset sale proceeds target of $400 to $500 million with the sale of a minority stake in AES Global Insurance Company (AGIC) for $450 million.
• AES Ohio Growth: To support growth at AES Ohio, the company sold a 30% indirect equity interest to a subsidiary of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), resulting in an upgrade to AES Ohio’s credit ratings.

Q1 2025 Financial Highlights

• GAAP Financial Metrics:
  • Net Loss of $73 million, compared to Net Income of $278 million in Q1 2024.
  • Net Income Attributable to AES Corporation of $46 million, down from $432 million in Q1 2024.
  • Diluted EPS of $0.07, compared to $0.60 in Q1 2024.
• Non-GAAP Adjusted Financial Metrics:
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $591 million, down from $640 million in Q1 2024.
  • Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $777 million, compared to $868 million in Q1 2024.
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.27, compared to $0.50 in Q1 2024.

Financial Position and Outlook

• 2025 Guidance: AES reaffirmed its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million.
• Long-Term Growth: The company expects annualized growth in Adjusted EBITDA of 5% to 7% through 2027, based on its 2023 guidance.
• Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes: AES reaffirmed its expectation of $3,950 to $4,350 million in 2025.
• Adjusted EPS Guidance: The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for Adjusted EPS of $2.10 to $2.26.
• Long-Term Adjusted EPS Growth: AES is also reaffirming its annualized growth target of 7% to 9% for Adjusted EPS through 2025 (from a 2020 base) and 7% to 9% through 2027 (from a 2023 base).

AES’s 2025 guidance is based on foreign currency and commodity forward curves as of March 31, 2025. The company also expects to maintain its quarterly dividend payment of $0.17595 going forward.