Bangladesh’s Rooftop Solar Ambition Faces Feasibility Hurdles

Amid the ongoing energy crisis, Bangladesh’s government has unveiled a new programme to install 3,000 megawatts (MW) of rooftop solar by December 2025. While the announcement signals a strong push for renewable energy, a new Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) briefing note cautions that the target may be overly ambitious.

According to the note, Bangladesh has installed just 245 MW of rooftop solar between June 2008 and June 2025, meaning the country would need to scale up installations more than twelve-fold in less than six months to meet the target.

“Government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer adequate sanctioned load to install 3,000 MW rooftop solar. The Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority should first assess and document rooftop solar potential in these buildings,” said Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh.

Implementation Hurdles

The report highlights that fund allocation, tendering, bid evaluations, and project implementation could push the timeline beyond December 2025. With only 15–20 capable EPC firms operating in the country, scaling up at the required pace appears unlikely.

Operational risks such as soiling, lack of long-term maintenance, and rural load-shedding may further undermine project performance.

CAPEX vs OPEX Models

Under the government’s plan, public offices will adopt the CAPEX model (publicly funded), while hospitals and educational institutions will use the OPEX model (no upfront cost).

CAPEX offers faster rollout and higher savings but may face risks from poor coordination and rushed developer selection.

OPEX ensures better quality but delivers lower savings, may struggle with financing, and could fail to attract investors in dispersed rural markets.

Regional Parallels

The note points to experiences from neighbouring countries:

India: Over 18 GW rooftop solar capacity by May 2025, supported by consistent policies.

Pakistan: Adoption driven by high tariffs and power shortages.

Sri Lanka: Overcame financing barriers with multilateral support and government funding.

Way Forward

IEEFA stresses that Bangladesh must develop EPC capacity, extend deadlines, and create maintenance funds under the CAPEX model. It also calls for an independent monitoring mechanism to ensure smooth operation of projects.

“Bangladesh’s rooftop solar sector remains at a nascent stage. Capacity development of government agencies and stronger institutional mechanisms will be critical for the programme’s success,” Alam noted.