Kuwait Balances Renewable Ambitions With Rising Gas Dependence Amid Power Strains

Kuwait is making ambitious plans to expand its renewable energy capacity, but is facing challenges that could delay its targets. The country aims to boost renewables from less than 1% of current electricity generation to 15% by 2030. However, analysis by Rystad Energy suggests that this goal may not be achievable within the planned timeframe. According to the study, renewable capacity is likely to reach only 3.3 GW by 2030, which would account for about 7% of power generation. The share of 15% renewables is considered more realistic by 2035, when capacity is expected to cross 11 GW, contributing nearly 20% of the electricity mix.

Kuwait currently has around 21 GW of installed capacity, but only 17 GW is reliably available during the hottest months due to aging plants and maintenance schedules. With rising summer temperatures that have touched 50 degrees Celsius, power demand has reached record highs of 17.7 GW in July. This pressure on the grid has resulted in scheduled power cuts that began earlier this year compared to previous years, while unplanned outages added to the strain. In May alone, shortages exceeded 1.5 GW during peak demand.

To manage this transition, natural gas is emerging as a critical part of Kuwait’s energy mix. Gas power generation is expected to increase by 17% to reach 77 terawatt-hours by 2030. This will drive a 38% increase in gas production and push overall gas demand up by 30% within five years. Kuwait is addressing this rising need through a mix of domestic gas production and continued imports of liquefied natural gas. Five new large-scale gas-fired power plants are under planning, which will add 18 GW of capacity and take total gas-based generation to more than 32 GW by 2035, compared to 14 GW today. On the import side, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has already secured a long-term supply deal with QatarEnergy for up to 3 million tonnes per year of LNG for 15 years.

The shift to gas also supports Kuwait’s goal of reducing reliance on oil for domestic electricity generation. Currently, oil makes up about 40% of the power sector’s fuel needs. By replacing this with gas, Kuwait aims to free up more crude for exports. Since oil exports are central to the country’s economy and government revenues, this transition is seen as crucial for strengthening fiscal stability and ensuring future revenue streams.

At present, Kuwait’s annual gas demand stands between 24 and 25 billion cubic meters, with the power sector consuming the largest share. About 40% of this demand is met through LNG imports, while 35% comes from associated gas production linked to crude output. This makes Kuwait vulnerable to OPEC+ production cuts. To address the risk, investments have been made in non-associated gas projects, especially through the Jurassic gas fields in the north. This segment now provides nearly 600 million cubic feet per day, making up about 25% of total demand and helping secure a more stable supply.