Africa’s Energy Turning Point: Rising Demand, Gas Growth, And A Strong Push Toward Renewables By 2026—Report

Africa is entering a decisive phase in its energy journey as it looks ahead to 2026, shaped by rapid population growth and rising economic ambitions. With its population projected to reach 2.4 billion by 2050, nearly one-quarter of the global total, the continent is expected to play a much larger role in global energy markets. Even though Africa currently has one of the lowest per capita energy consumption levels in the world, total demand for electricity, gas, and refined petroleum products is set to rise sharply as economic activity expands, and GDP is projected to almost triple by mid-century.

In the oil and gas sector, Africa’s production outlook remains strong. By 2026, oil and gas output is expected to reach around 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Nigeria and Algeria continue to lead production, but new growth is emerging from countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Namibia, and Uganda. Exploration is increasingly shifting toward offshore deepwater basins, with major drilling activity planned in frontier regions including South Africa and Namibia’s Orange Sub-basin. However, the sector continues to face challenges linked to restrictive fiscal terms and high above-ground risks. To counter these issues and revive investor interest, several governments are revising regulations and offering incentives aimed at attracting foreign capital.

Natural gas is becoming a central pillar of Africa’s energy strategy. The continent holds the world’s second-largest volume of discovered yet undeveloped gas resources. While North Africa already has mature gas value chains, Sub-Saharan Africa is preparing for expansion through major projects in Mozambique, Nigeria, and Senegal. Gas-to-power development is seen as a key solution to improve electricity access and support local industries. Still, progress is often slowed by the absence of regional pipeline infrastructure and a common challenge where investors hesitate to build infrastructure without guaranteed demand, while demand cannot grow without infrastructure.

Africa’s power sector is also undergoing significant change. Electricity demand across the continent is expected to more than double by 2050. Natural gas is projected to supply about 45% of total power generation by that time, but renewable energy is gaining strong momentum. Between 2020 and 2025, Africa invested around $34 billion in clean power technologies, mainly solar and onshore wind. Efforts are underway to strengthen regional power pools and introduce market reforms to improve cooperation and encourage private participation. Despite this progress, limited transmission networks remain a major constraint to wider power access.

At the same time, Africa is positioning itself within the global energy transition. Although it accounts for only 5% of global energy-related emissions, the continent holds significant reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and copper, which are essential for clean energy technologies. By expanding beyond raw mineral exports into processing and refining, Africa has an opportunity to support global decarbonization while driving its own green industrial growth.