China’s Utility-Scale Solar Pipeline Reaches 664 GW as Renewable Expansion Outpaces the World, Says GEM

China has more than 500 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity under construction, exceeding the combined total of the rest of the world, according to a new report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). However, the report warns that grid transmission constraints and continued reliance on coal-powered infrastructure could slow the country’s transition away from fossil fuels.

According to GEM, China currently has 664 GW of prospective utility-scale solar capacity and 698 GW of prospective wind capacity across announced, pre-construction, and construction stages. The report states that this pipeline could enable the country to achieve its Five-Year Plan target of wind and solar accounting for more than 50% of installed power capacity well before the 2030 deadline.

China’s wind energy pipeline grew by 37% between 2025 and 2026, while the rest of the world’s pipeline remained largely unchanged. The country also has 251 GW of wind capacity under construction, more than double the rest of the world combined. Once operational, this capacity is expected to generate enough electricity annually to match Germany’s total power generation in 2025.

The report notes that a significant share of the new renewable capacity is concentrated in six northwestern and northern provinces as part of China’s desert renewable energy megabase strategy. These regions account for more than half of the country’s planned wind and utility-scale solar capacity.

Despite the rapid expansion, GEM highlighted several challenges that could hinder renewable energy integration. Solar curtailment rates have risen to 10–17% in provinces such as Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu due to grid congestion and limited electricity market flexibility, while wind curtailment ranges between 4% and 9% across northern transmission corridors.

The report also found that transmission infrastructure expansion has not kept pace with renewable energy growth. Although China’s megabase strategy requires 27 ultra-high-voltage direct current (UHVDC) transmission lines, the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan includes only ten additional lines. Coal continues to dominate the existing UHVDC network, accounting for 42% of transmitted electricity, compared to around one-fifth generated from wind and solar.

To address rising renewable curtailment, China is increasingly pairing renewable energy projects with local industrial demand through energy storage, green hydrogen production, direct renewable power connections, and industrial parks. The country currently leads the global green hydrogen sector with more than 10 GW of operating wind and solar capacity dedicated to hydrogen production, nearly eight times the operational capacity of the rest of the world combined.

However, GEM cautioned that this localisation strategy could inadvertently prolong coal dependence by allowing energy-intensive industrial projects to meet renewable integration requirements while continuing to rely heavily on coal. The report cited examples where renewable energy contributes only a small share of overall industrial energy consumption despite supporting green hydrogen production.

Commenting on the findings, Aiqun Yu, Research Analyst and Senior East Asia Strategist at Global Energy Monitor, said:

“The purpose of the megabases is clear, and that’s to accelerate nationwide decarbonization. But the new Five-Year Plan has so much more room for the country to continue its climate leadership. Ultimately, the success of China’s renewable energy megabases will not be measured by the gigawatts added, but by the volume of coal they actively displace.”