According to EUPD Research calculations, a dramatic decline of new photovoltaic installations is to be expected once the 52 GW solar cap has been reached. Associated discontinuation of feed-in tariffs prevents an economic operation of newly installed photovoltaic systems. While the coronavirus epidemic has not impacted the demand for small-sized photovoltaic installations or home storage yet, the solar cap may cause a lack of installations worth one billion euros in 2021.
Bonn. For weeks, fundamental constraints resulting from the coronavirus crisis have become significantly apparent in various survey results and economic data. So far, the pandemic has barely affected the photovoltaic (PV) demand. Actually, the market segment of small-sized PV installations up to 10 kWp (generally private homes) even grew by almost one quarter compared to the first quarter of previous year. In total, the PV market in the first months of the year is almost at the same level as previous-year period.
Because of the imminent cap for new solar roofs the rather positive development is threatened to come to a sudden end in only a few weeks’ time. According to a new study by Bonn-based market and economic research institute EUPD, a deep slump in PV demand of home owners amounting to 83% can be anticipated once the cap has been reached in summer. A massive decline in sales of solar energy storage solutions is also predicted.
EUPD Research compares two possible trajectories for the market segment of small-sized PV systems: A baseline scenario with impacts of the coronavirus crisis as well as a scenario for the solar cap. An analysis of quarterly installation data show a dampening effect for the second and third quarter in 2020 associated with the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus. Sales are expected to recover starting in the first quarter 2021. In contrast, a significant anticipatory effect is expected for new small-sized solar installations if the solar cap continues to be in effect. This effect then comes to an abrupt end once the solar cap is reached in August 2020. Between the third and fourth quarter of 2020 a market decline is anticipated amounting to 83%.
