IEA Projections: Solar PV and Wind Set to Double, Surpassing 710 GW by 2028 and Breaking Records

In 2023, there was a significant global surge in the addition of renewable electricity capacity, reaching an approximate total of 507 GW, marking a remarkable 50% increase from the previous year. This surge is attributed to unwavering policy support in more than 130 nations, fostering a substantial shift in the global growth trajectory. The pivotal drivers behind this surge are the year-on-year expansions in China’s solar PV (116%) and wind (66%) markets.

Looking ahead, the IEA predicts a continuous uptrend in renewable power capacity additions over the next five years, with solar PV and wind taking the lead, accounting for an unprecedented 96% of the total. This dominance is fueled by their lower generation costs compared to both fossil and non-fossil alternatives, coupled with steadfast policy backing across various nations.

Projections reveal that solar PV and wind additions are set to more than double by 2028, reaching an impressive 710 GW, consistently shattering records. Meanwhile, hydropower and bioenergy capacity additions are anticipated to lag behind due to decelerated development, particularly in emerging economies like China.

In a groundbreaking revelation, China emerges as the epicenter of renewable electricity capacity growth, nearly tripling its expansion over the next five years compared to the previous period. The nation is expected to contribute an unprecedented 56% to the global upswing, deploying almost five times more renewable capacity than the European Union and six times more than the United States, the second- and third-largest growth markets, respectively.

The robust growth in China is attributed to the government’s Net Zero by 2060 target, supported by incentives outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), and a wealth of locally manufactured equipment combined with low-cost financing options.

While the United States and the European Union experience accelerated expansion due to initiatives like the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and country-level policies supporting EU decarbonization and energy security targets, India witnesses faster renewable power growth through 2028, courtesy of progressive policy improvements. Latin America sees a surge in distributed solar PV system buildouts, propelled by higher retail prices, and Brazil achieves record highs in renewable energy growth, boosted by supportive policies.

In the Middle East and North Africa, renewable energy expansion gains momentum, primarily driven by policy incentives capitalizing on the cost-competitiveness of solar PV and onshore wind power. Sub-Saharan Africa, though experiencing faster renewable capacity increases, still falls short of its resource potential and electrification needs. These revelations, grounded in IEA forecasts, underscore a pivotal turning point in the global energy landscape, signaling a rapid transition towards sustainable and renewable sources.