IRENA Calls For Ambitious NDC Updates At COP29 To Achieve 2030 Renewable Energy Goals

At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlighted the urgent need for countries to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as part of the global push to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. This call came during the release of IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024, which outlined the path to a net-zero future by mid-century. The report stressed the importance of aligning energy planning with climate policies to channel necessary investments into the clean energy transition.

IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, which sets a framework for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, projects that current national pledges can only reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by 3% by 2030 and 51% by 2050. While this progress is notable, achieving the global goals agreed at COP28—specifically tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030—is essential for limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C.

However, despite the ambitious targets set at COP28, IRENA’s report reveals that there is a significant gap between political announcements and the actual plans and policies of many countries. National energy plans are expected to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030. To meet these renewable energy and energy efficiency goals, investments must dramatically increase, totaling an estimated USD 31.5 trillion from 2024 to 2030. These investments should focus on renewable power, grid infrastructure, energy efficiency, and conservation.

One of the main challenges highlighted by IRENA is the geographic disparity in renewable energy investments. While renewable investments are growing, they are still concentrated in a few countries, leaving many nations, especially in the Global South, behind in the energy transition. Moreover, fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix in several of the world’s largest economies, contributing heavily to global CO2 emissions. For the world to meet the 1.5°C target, IRENA states that the G20 countries must triple their renewable power capacity by 2030, reaching 9,400 gigawatts (GW), and expand it seven-fold by 2050 to 24,900 GW, compared to 2023 levels.

IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario envisions renewable energy sources providing 68% of the total electricity supply by 2030 and 91% by 2050. Achieving this requires a deep transformation of both the power and end-use sectors. Fossil fuels, which currently account for 61% of global power generation, must shrink significantly to just 24% by 2030 and 4% by 2050.

A major component of this transition is the need for stronger and more flexible power grids, which can be enabled through energy storage solutions, demand-side management, and sector-coupling technologies. Energy storage, in particular, is a key enabler for creating a fully decarbonized, 100% renewable power system.

As countries prepare for the third round of NDCs in 2025, their updated contributions must align better with their national energy plans and net-zero targets. IRENA is already working with 101 Parties of the Paris Agreement to support the upgrade and implementation of NDCs. Transparent, coherent national energy and climate strategies will not only help accelerate the energy transition but also attract the investment needed to achieve a low-carbon, resilient economy.

International collaboration is also critical in securing the financing required for a just transition. IRENA points to new funding sources, including global wealth taxes championed by the G20, as a way to ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are shared equitably. Public finance will also be necessary to de-risk projects in high-risk countries and fund crucial infrastructure, with the possibility of using fossil fuel subsidy reductions to help fund these efforts.