The U.S. is expected to see significant growth in electric generation driven by renewable energy, particularly solar power, over the next two years. According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. utilities and independent power producers plan to add 26 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2025 and another 22 GW in 2026. Last year, the electric power sector added a record 37 GW of solar capacity, nearly doubling the additions made in 2023. Wind capacity is also projected to grow, with 8 GW expected in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026, showing slight increases compared to the 7 GW added in 2024.
In contrast, generating capacity from other energy sources is expected to remain mostly stable. Natural gas-fired capacity saw only a modest increase of 1 GW in 2024. However, natural gas continues to be the largest contributor to U.S. power generation, accounting for about 42% of the electricity mix in 2024. Total generation from natural gas-fired plants reached 1,767 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024, which was a 4% increase from 2023. This is expected to decline by 3% to 1,712 billion kWh in 2025 and by another 1% to 1,692 billion kWh in 2026.
The growth of renewable energy is expected to remain strong, with renewable power generation forecasted to increase by 12% to 1,058 billion kWh in 2025 and by another 8% to 1,138 billion kWh in 2026. In 2024, renewables generated 945 billion kWh, marking a 9% increase from the previous year and solidifying their position as the second-largest source of electricity in the U.S.
Nuclear energy is also projected to see modest growth, with generation expected to rise by 2% to 796 billion kWh in 2025 and by an additional 1% to 800 billion kWh in 2026. This growth is attributed to the operation of two new Vogtle power plant units that came online in 2023 and 2024, as well as the planned restart of the Palisades power plant in late 2025. Nuclear generation in 2024 reached 781 billion kWh, slightly higher than in 2023.
Coal, on the other hand, is expected to decline in terms of capacity. Coal retirements are anticipated to remove 11 GW of generating capacity in 2025 and another 4 GW in 2026. In 2024, only 3 GW of coal capacity was retired, marking the lowest annual retirement figure since 2011. Coal power generation is projected to remain steady at around 640 billion kWh in both 2025 and 2026, down from 647 billion kWh in 2024.
The overall growth in U.S. electricity generation is expected to be driven primarily by renewable energy capacity additions. Total electricity production in 2024 reached 4,155 billion kWh, a 3% increase from 2023. This is forecasted to grow by 2% in 2025 and by 1% in 2026, supported by the continued expansion of solar and wind power.
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