Rooftop Solar Target In Bangladesh Faces Delays Due To Limited Capacity And Strict Deadlines

Amid Bangladesh’s ongoing energy crisis, the government’s recent announcement of a programme to install 3,000 megawatts (MW) of rooftop solar capacity by December 2025 has been welcomed as a timely boost to the renewable energy sector. However, a new briefing note by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has raised concerns over whether such a target is realistic, considering the country’s track record of installations.

According to the note, Bangladesh has managed to install only 245 MW of rooftop solar capacity over a 17-year period between June 2008 and June 2025. To meet the new 3,000 MW target within the next few months, the country would have to accelerate efforts more than twelvefold. This raises questions about the readiness of the sector and its ability to scale up in such a short time.

The IEEFA analysis points out that only about 15 to 20 high-quality Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) companies are currently active in Bangladesh, and their combined capacity may fall short of supporting the installation of 3,000 MW in less than six months. Under the new rooftop solar programme, government offices are expected to adopt the CAPEX model funded by public money, while hospitals and educational institutions will follow the OPEX model, where systems are installed without upfront costs.

Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh and the author of the note, stated, “As government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer adequate sanctioned load to install 3,000MW rooftop solar, the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority should assess and document rooftop solar potential in these buildings. Furthermore, fund allocation for various projects, tendering, evaluation of bidding documents, issuing work orders and project implementation will likely require an extension of the December 2025 deadline.”

He further mentioned, “While the CAPEX model allows for faster rollout and higher savings, there could be risks stemming from poor coordination, lack of maintenance, and rushed developer selection. On the other hand, the OPEX model ensures quality, but offers lower savings, and could face financing hurdles and risks from load-shedding in rural areas. If projects are small and scattered in rural areas, they may fail to attract companies to invest in the OPEX model.”

The note also highlights several risks and operational challenges. One key concern is the issue of soiling, which can significantly reduce annual solar energy yield. To address this, the report suggests that the government instruct public offices to create dedicated funds from monthly savings generated by CAPEX-based projects and to enter long-term maintenance contracts with service providers. Another issue is load-shedding in rural areas, which may result in solar generation losses under the OPEX model, creating potential risks for project viability.

In addition, the briefing recommends that Bangladesh should learn from the experiences of neighbouring countries such as India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, where renewable energy already accounts for between 47% and 63% of the power mix. Pakistan’s rapid rooftop solar growth, in particular, demonstrates how supply shortages and unaffordable electricity tariffs can act as powerful drivers of change. By drawing on regional examples and addressing capacity and operational constraints, the IEEFA note suggests that Bangladesh can improve its chances of meeting its ambitious rooftop solar target, though significant challenges remain.