IEA Report Projects Surging Power Demand in MENA, With Shift Toward Gas, Renewables and Nuclear

Electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has tripled since 2000 and is projected to rise by a further 50% by 2035, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report, The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa, highlights that the increase equals the current demand of Germany and Spain combined.

Rising populations, higher incomes, industrialisation, urbanisation, and the electrification of transport are driving demand, with cooling and desalination alone expected to account for around 40% of additional consumption over the next decade.

Currently, natural gas and oil dominate the region’s power mix, making up more than 90% of generation. However, policy plans across several countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, target a reduced role for oil in power generation. By 2035, oil-fired output is forecast to fall from 20% to 5% of the mix, with natural gas meeting half of demand growth, solar PV capacity increasing tenfold, and nuclear capacity tripling.

The IEA notes that MENA is on track to expand power capacity by more than 300 GW over the next decade—three times Saudi Arabia’s current generation capacity. Investment in the region’s power sector reached $44 billion in 2024 and is expected to rise by 50% by 2035, with 40% directed toward grid upgrades to reduce transmission losses, which are currently double the global average.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the region’s policy plans are set to reshape its power mix, with implications for global energy balances and emissions. He stressed that modernising grids, expanding regional interconnections, and boosting air conditioner efficiency will be essential to meet demand while maintaining security of supply.

If diversification targets are not met, however, oil and gas demand for power generation would rise by more than a quarter by 2035, reducing export revenues by $80 billion and increasing import costs by $20 billion, the report warns.