DNV Warns Spain Off Track on Net-Zero Goals, Calls for Faster Electrification and Grid Expansion

DNV is set to present a comprehensive national-level analysis of Spain’s energy transition at WindEurope 2026, highlighting the urgent need for accelerated action to meet long-term decarbonization targets.

According to the report, Spain has made progress in reducing emissions since peaking in 2007 but remains significantly behind its National Energy and Climate Plan target of a 32% reduction from 1990 levels, having achieved only a 13% reduction to date. DNV’s projections indicate that under current trends, energy and process-related CO₂ emissions could decline by 74% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels—falling short of achieving full carbon neutrality.

The analysis identifies the transport sector as Spain’s largest emissions source, generating nearly 120 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2023. Emissions from this sector are expected to decline by 46% by 2050, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles and alternative fuels. Meanwhile, emissions from the power sector are projected to drop sharply from 36 million tonnes to just 2 million tonnes over the same period, supported by rapid renewable energy deployment.

The report also highlights a limited but important role for carbon capture technologies, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as cement and refining, with approximately 6 million tonnes of CO₂ expected to be captured annually from 2035.

DNV emphasized that achieving deeper decarbonization will require strong policy frameworks to support investment certainty and efficient energy asset management, alongside electricity markets capable of handling a reliable and flexible energy mix.

Brice Le Gallo, Vice President and Regional Director for Energy Systems at DNV, stated that while Spain has a strong foundation for energy transition, closing the gap toward national targets will require accelerated electrification across transport, heating, and industry, as well as significant investments in grid infrastructure, storage, and permitting reforms.

The report notes that electricity demand in Spain is expected to more than double by 2050, driven by electrification trends, hydrogen production, and the growth of energy-intensive sectors such as data centres. This surge will require substantial upgrades to grid capacity, particularly in distribution networks, which are expected to face constraints without accelerated investment.

Storage solutions, including lithium-ion batteries, pumped hydro, and emerging vehicle-to-grid technologies, will play a critical role in balancing variable renewable energy output from solar and wind sources.

DNV also flagged social acceptance as a growing challenge, with increasing community resistance to renewable energy projects potentially affecting infrastructure development. The report calls for stronger stakeholder engagement, transparent communication, and equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms to maintain public support.

Carlos Albero, Market Area Manager for Iberia at DNV, concluded that while achieving net zero by 2050 may not be feasible under current scenarios, Spain can still make significant progress by accelerating renewable deployment, improving market design, expediting permitting processes, and advancing electrification and carbon capture initiatives.