Quantum Computing Growth Could Drive New Energy and Resource Demands

As quantum computing advances toward commercial-scale deployment, researchers are beginning to examine the technology’s long-term implications for electricity demand, water use, and critical material supply chains.

A new research initiative led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville highlights how large-scale quantum computing infrastructure could introduce significant resource challenges alongside its technological benefits. The findings were detailed in two recent papers published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition and Nature Reviews Clean Technology.

The study is led by David McCollum, Distinguished Scientist at ORNL and joint faculty professor at the University of Tennessee’s Center for Energy, Transportation, and Environmental Policy (CETEP). The research focuses on superconducting quantum bit (qubit) systems, one of the most advanced quantum computing approaches currently being pursued by technology companies including Google and IBM.

According to the researchers, future fault-tolerant quantum computers — expected to emerge commercially in the late 2030s and beyond — could create substantial electricity demand from next-generation quantum data centers. The study also identifies water consumption and helium-3 availability as potential constraints for scaling the technology globally.

“Quantum computing presents extraordinary opportunities, from accelerating scientific discovery to solving complex optimization problems,” McCollum said in a statement released by the University of Tennessee at Knoxville. “At the same time, it introduces new questions about the energy, water, and materials required to operate these systems at scale.”

The research marks one of the first attempts to quantify the energy and physical resource requirements of industrial-scale quantum computing systems. Researchers noted that while technological efficiency improvements are expected over time, these gains may not necessarily reduce total energy demand as deployment expands.

The report further highlights that many national quantum technology roadmaps currently place limited emphasis on energy and resource implications, despite growing global concerns over rising power demand from artificial intelligence and advanced data center infrastructure.

In addition to the published studies, the research team has launched a public-facing dashboard to visualize energy, infrastructure, and resource scenarios associated with future quantum technology deployment pathways.

The project reflects growing interest in understanding how emerging computing technologies could affect future energy systems, particularly as utilities and policymakers prepare for increasing electricity demand linked to AI, hyperscale data centers, and advanced digital infrastructure.