Sub-Saharan Africa’s Off-Grid Solar Market Set For Sixfold Growth By 2035

Sub-Saharan Africa is witnessing a major shift in its energy sector as off-grid solar emerges as an important solution to the region’s electricity access challenges. According to research by Wood Mackenzie, around 600 million people in the region currently lack reliable access to electricity. National power grids have struggled to expand fast enough to keep pace with population growth, creating significant opportunities for decentralized renewable energy systems.

Off-grid solar installations are expected to expand substantially over the coming decade. Market estimates indicate that the sector could grow sixfold by 2035, driven by falling solar technology costs, high prices for conventional power generation, and increasing private-sector investment.

The economics of electricity generation are playing a key role in this transition. Diesel-based generation has become increasingly expensive in several African markets, while the cost of solar modules and related technologies has declined significantly. This has improved the competitiveness of solar power for businesses, industries, households, and other electricity consumers that cannot depend fully on conventional grids.

Private investors are also becoming increasingly important in addressing infrastructure gaps. Developers and financiers are supporting new business models that enable customers to adopt solar systems with lower upfront costs.

Nigeria is expected to account for about 35% of projected off-grid solar installations in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2035, according to the research. The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 significantly increased diesel costs, making conventional backup generation more expensive for businesses and households. This has strengthened demand for solar-as-a-service models, under which customers can access solar power without making large initial investments in equipment.

Kenya presents a different market dynamic. The country has a relatively mature off-grid solar sector, and continued grid expansion means that solar deployment is increasingly being driven by economic considerations rather than basic electricity access. Businesses are adopting solar where it can reduce electricity costs or provide greater energy security. Changes to net-metering policies and grid regulations are also supporting the development of distributed solar projects.

In Central Africa, mining is emerging as another major source of demand. The Democratic Republic of Congo and other countries are seeing large-scale off-grid solar projects linked to mining operations. The Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, for example, is using solar generation combined with battery storage to provide hundreds of megawatts of power. Such systems can reduce dependence on fossil-fuel generation while lowering operating costs and emissions.

However, financing remains a major challenge for the sector. High interest rates, currency depreciation, and uncertainty surrounding rural electrification policies can increase project costs and make long-term investment decisions more difficult.

Developers are therefore increasingly exploring value-stacking models that combine equipment, financing, energy services, and other revenue streams. The ability of private and blended-finance models to mobilize affordable capital will be an important factor in determining how quickly Sub-Saharan Africa’s off-grid solar market can scale through 2035.