Europe’s Power Grid Set to Surpass 80% Zero-Carbon Generation by 2030, but Renewables Target Remains Out of Reach

Europe’s power sector is expected to surpass 80% zero-carbon generation by 2030, although the region is likely to fall short of its flagship renewable energy targets, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Europe Power Markets Strategic Planning Outlook 2026. The outlook covers 35 national power markets through 2060 and projects significant growth in electricity demand, renewable generation and battery storage.

European electricity demand is forecast to reach 4,103 TWh by 2030, up 11% from 2025, before rising to 6,152 TWh by 2050, representing a 66% increase. Data centres are expected to drive much of the near-term increase, while electrification of transport, hydrogen production and heating will become increasingly important from the 2030s.

Electric vehicle electricity consumption is projected to rise from 39 TWh in 2025 to 577 TWh by 2050, while grid-connected hydrogen demand is expected to increase from almost zero to 417 TWh over the same period. Heat-pump electricity demand is also forecast to increase more than fivefold by 2060.

Northern Europe is expected to record the strongest absolute demand growth, increasing 81% by 2050, compared with 52% in Southern Europe.

Solar, Wind and Battery Storage Capacity Set for Major Expansion

Renewable energy deployment is expected to accelerate significantly. Solar PV capacity is projected to nearly double to 637 GWac by 2030, supported by average annual additions of around 61 GW. Onshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 346 GW, with approximately 17 GW added annually.

Offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 73 GW by 2030 and accelerate to 148 GW by 2035, although supply-chain constraints and investor uncertainty have delayed deployment.

Renewables are forecast to provide 65% of electricity supply across the 35 markets by 2030, increasing to 83% by 2050. Within the EU27, renewables are projected to account for 63.7% of supply in 2030, below the 65% Fit-for-55 target and 69% REPowerEU goal.

Battery energy storage is also positioned for rapid growth, with installed capacity forecast to more than triple from 47 GW to 163 GW by 2030. Germany, the UK, Italy and Poland are expected to account for more than half of this expansion.

However, Wood Mackenzie cautioned that renewable curtailment could increase in markets where transmission and grid infrastructure fail to keep pace with new generation capacity.

Gas Retains Flexibility Role as Coal Generation Declines

Natural gas is expected to retain an important role in balancing Europe’s increasingly renewable electricity system. Gas-fired generation between 2026 and 2040 is forecast to average 6% higher than Wood Mackenzie’s previous outlook, partly because slower offshore wind deployment has created a supply gap.

Gas-fired capacity is projected to increase 5% to 273 GW by 2030, even as fleet utilisation declines from 27% to 22%. This reflects an increasing shift toward using gas plants for system flexibility rather than continuous generation.

Meanwhile, coal-fired generation is expected to fall from 457 TWh in 2025 to 237 TWh by 2030, with the EU27 coal fleet projected to exit the electricity mix by 2050.

Nuclear power is expected to retain a stronger long-term role, supported by plant-life extensions, new-build programmes and policy changes in several European markets. Gas-fired electricity generation is ultimately projected to decline substantially, falling 45% by 2060.

Mohammed Alraood, Research Analyst Europe Power at Wood Mackenzie, said Europe’s transition remains on track but is progressing unevenly across individual markets. He noted that gas is increasingly expected to provide electricity when renewable generation is unavailable rather than serving as a major source of baseload power.

The pace of Europe’s transition will ultimately depend heavily on grid investment and interconnector expansion. Wood Mackenzie expects the region’s broader commitment to decarbonisation to continue, while investment opportunities are likely to vary considerably depending on policy certainty, grid availability and electricity demand growth.