Global Renewable Energy Capacity Set To Grow By 4,800 GW By 2031, With Solar Leading Expansion—IEA

Global renewable energy capacity is expected to increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, representing a 57% rise compared with the previous six-year period. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is projected to remain the largest contributor to this expansion, accounting for more than three-quarters of total renewable capacity growth. Onshore wind is also expected to record significant progress, with cumulative installed capacity forecast to increase by over 70% to reach 2,040 GW by 2031.

The expansion reflects growing global efforts to strengthen energy security, diversify electricity sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Geopolitical tensions, elevated fossil fuel prices and regional supply chain disruptions are encouraging governments and businesses to accelerate renewable energy deployment. Countries are increasingly viewing domestic renewable energy generation as an important component of their energy security strategies.

Emerging markets and developing economies outside China are expected to play a major role in this transition. For the first time, these markets are projected to match the growth pace of advanced economies, highlighting the expanding importance of developing countries in the global renewable energy sector. India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market, supported by increasing investments, policy initiatives and rising demand for clean electricity.

The growing contribution of India also reflects the country’s efforts to expand solar and wind installations, strengthen domestic manufacturing and improve electricity infrastructure. Government-supported renewable energy programmes, competitive project auctions and private sector investments are creating opportunities for further capacity additions. The country’s expanding electricity demand and focus on reducing fossil fuel dependence are expected to support continued growth in renewable energy deployment.

Alongside large-scale renewable energy projects, consumer-led adoption is becoming another important driver of global capacity expansion. Households and small businesses are increasingly installing rooftop and off-grid solar systems to access affordable and reliable electricity. This trend is particularly important in regions where grid infrastructure remains unreliable or electricity access is limited.

Since 2022, the adoption of distributed solar solutions has helped improve electricity access for at least 70 million households. Falling technology costs, improved availability of solar equipment and the need for greater energy independence are encouraging consumers to invest in decentralised renewable energy systems. Rooftop solar and off-grid installations are therefore expected to remain important contributors to the global energy transition.

However, the rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity is also creating challenges for electricity systems. As solar and wind generation increase, existing grids are facing difficulties in balancing electricity supply and demand. Limited transmission infrastructure and insufficient system flexibility are contributing to renewable energy curtailment, where available electricity generation cannot be fully utilised.

Several electricity markets are also experiencing more frequent negative power prices, reflecting periods when electricity supply exceeds demand. These developments highlight the need for stronger grid infrastructure, improved electricity market mechanisms and additional flexibility solutions to accommodate growing renewable generation.

Battery energy storage systems, hybrid renewable energy projects and grid connection reforms are gaining importance in addressing these challenges. Battery storage can help absorb excess electricity during periods of high renewable generation and release it when demand increases. Hybrid projects combining solar, wind and storage can also improve generation reliability and support more efficient utilisation of existing grid infrastructure.

According to the projected main-case trajectory, global renewable energy capacity is expected to reach approximately 9,710 GW by 2030. However, this level would remain below the COP28 commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Achieving the international target will require faster implementation of renewable energy auctions, streamlined permitting procedures and increased investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure. Governments will also need to address grid connection delays and strengthen electricity market frameworks to support large-scale renewable integration.

With solar PV continuing to lead capacity additions and wind, storage and distributed energy solutions expanding, the global renewable energy sector is entering another period of substantial growth. Faster policy implementation and infrastructure development could help close the remaining gap and enable the world to achieve the renewable capacity tripling target by 2031.