The December 2023 Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory reveals a year-on-year decrease in emissions compared to the same period in 2022. Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions now stand at 29.0% below June 2005 levels, the base year for the Paris Agreement target.
Total emissions across all sectors were 432.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, a reduction of 2.4 million tonnes or 0.5% from 2022. The electricity sector led the reductions with a 4.4 million-tonne decrease, driven by significant increases in renewable energy sources.
Fugitive emissions decreased by 2.1% or 1 million tonnes, and stationary energy (excluding electricity) emissions fell by 0.8 million tonnes. These reductions were partially offset by increases in transport emissions, which rose by 3.4 million tonnes, and agriculture emissions, which increased by 0.5 million tonnes. These increases reflect the ongoing recovery from the pandemic and changes in crop production and livestock populations.
The recent passage of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard by Parliament is crucial for further reducing transport sector CO2 emissions by around 321 million tonnes and saving motorists approximately $95 billion in fuel costs by 2050.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, emphasized the impact of renewable energy on reducing emissions. “We’ve seen renewable generation increase by 25% in the National Electricity Market since we came to office – and our Reliable Renewables plan continues to drive down emissions across the economy,” Bowen stated.
Bowen highlighted the government’s commitment to effective, expert-supported policies aimed at creating a clean, affordable, and reliable energy system. “Our plan is delivering effective policies focused on cost-of-living, like cleaner, cheaper to run cars with New Vehicle Efficiency Standards – not relying on a global pandemic and drought for emissions reduction.”
The government’s existing policies are projected to keep Australia on track for a 42% emissions reduction by 2030. Official projections released with the Annual Climate Change Statement indicate that Australia is set to be 1% below the 2021 to 2030 emissions budget, achieving over-performance on overall budget terms.
Australia’s Emissions Projections 2023 report provides the latest estimates of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions through 2035, assessing the potential impacts of policies and measures. The report outlines two scenarios: a baseline scenario and a ‘with additional measures’ scenario.
The baseline scenario, which includes existing federal, state, and territory policies, expects a 37% reduction in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030, but 1% above Australia’s 2021-2030 emissions budget. This scenario projects a 49% reduction by 2035.
The ‘with additional measures’ scenario, incorporating announced policies, anticipates a 42% reduction by 2030, meeting the emissions budget target. This scenario projects a 53% reduction by 2035, assuming that renewable energy will constitute 82% of electricity generation by 2030 and additional measures under the National Electric Vehicle Strategy.
Emissions trends from 2023 to 2035 indicate declines in nearly all sectors, driven by the strong uptake of renewables. The electricity sector is projected to see the most significant decline, with a 75% reduction in the baseline scenario and 79% in the ‘with additional measures’ scenario. Other sectors, including stationary energy, industrial processes, and fugitive emissions, will also see declines due to efficiency investments and technological improvements.
Transport emissions are expected to increase as travel activity returns to pre-pandemic levels but will decrease after 2030 due to electric vehicle adoption. The agriculture and waste sectors are expected to remain relatively stable throughout the projection period.
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