Climate Change And Energy Resilience In Southeast Asia: Navigating Rising Risks And Future Challenges – IEA

Climate change is having a noticeable impact on Southeast Asia, with the region experiencing a rise in land surface temperatures by 0.8°C since the 1980s, accompanied by more frequent and intense heat waves. These rising temperatures have altered precipitation patterns, leading to increased flood risks that surpass the global average. Southeast Asia is also seeing intensified tropical cyclones, especially affecting countries such as Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Looking ahead, climate impacts in Southeast Asia are expected to worsen. Erratic precipitation patterns are projected to become more common, resulting in more intense and frequent heavy rainfalls, which could increase flood risks. Mean temperatures are likely to continue rising, with extreme heat events potentially doubling under low-emissions scenarios and quadrupling under high-emissions scenarios by the century’s end. Projections also suggest that tropical cyclones will continue to intensify, threatening coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. Alongside more intense cyclones, accelerated sea level rise poses a risk to coastal energy assets due to storm surges and coastal flooding.

These climate hazards impact the entire energy value chain, from fuel extraction and processing to electricity generation and distribution. The energy system, already under strain from rising electricity demand, dependence on imported fuels, and energy affordability issues, faces additional challenges from climate risks.

High temperatures and heat waves critically affect the power sector, notably solar PV, gas-fired power plants, and electricity networks. Elevated temperatures can reduce solar power generation by degrading efficiency and increasing electrical resistance, while also damaging solar cells and materials. Similarly, natural gas-fired power plants may experience decreased power generation due to reduced air mass flow and higher cooling water temperatures. While current impacts of extreme heat are limited, projections indicate that solar PV and natural gas-fired power plants will face more frequent extreme heat events in the coming decades. In high-emissions scenarios, nearly 70% of solar PV and over 90% of natural gas-fired power plants could experience more than 20 hot days above 35°C by 2100, a significant increase from current levels.

Electricity grids are increasingly stressed by extreme heat events. Overhead power lines can heat up, expand, and sag, while underground cables may suffer short circuits due to stress on insulating materials. Critical components such as transformers, inverters, and substations are at higher risk of failure from overheating. Additionally, rising electricity demand for cooling adds further strain to the grid.

Heavy rainfall and flooding disrupt coal and critical mineral mining operations. Mines for coal, nickel, and copper in Southeast Asia’s flood-prone areas have already faced operational halts and supply chain interruptions due to inundation and physical damage. Without timely climate change mitigation, around 75% of coal mines, 75% of copper mines, and 30% of nickel mines in the region could see more than a 10% increase in heavy rainfall by mid-century compared to pre-industrial levels.

Changes in precipitation patterns also necessitate building climate resilience for hydropower. In countries like Laos PDR and Viet Nam, where hydropower is a crucial part of the energy mix, increased variability in precipitation could reduce hydropower generation capacity by 5% by 2100 compared to 1970-2010 levels in a low-emissions scenario, or nearly 9% in a high-emissions scenario. The Mekong River basin countries, already facing electricity supply disruptions due to climate change, are expected to experience the largest drops in generation capacity.

The intensification of tropical cyclones poses further risks to energy security. Cyclones can damage energy infrastructure with severe winds, heavy rainfall, landslides, and storm surges, exacerbated by rising sea levels. In Southeast Asia, nearly half of solar PV and hydropower capacities are located in cyclone-prone areas, well above the global average of 15%. Over 40% of wind turbines and over 20% of electricity grids are also exposed to cyclones. Coastal refineries could face severe flooding or storm surges due to sea level rise and intensifying cyclones.

To mitigate climate impacts, energy infrastructure planning and development must be adapted to support climate resilience. A climate-resilient energy system should be prepared for climate changes, able to withstand slow-onset changes, operate during extreme weather events using alternative sources, and recover from climate-driven disruptions. Building a robust climate database, conducting scientific assessments, and integrating climate resilience into energy policies are crucial initial steps. Despite progress, the region faces challenges with inadequate observation data and climate projections, and energy sector resilience is often overlooked in adaptation policies.

Private sector investment, supported by public financing, policies, and insurance, is needed to enhance resilience. Deploying energy-efficient technologies and nature-based solutions can address both slow-onset and extreme weather events while tackling long-term issues. Technical and structural improvements, diversification of energy sources, and innovative digital solutions can help manage immediate impacts and enable faster recovery.

Although climate change impacts are increasing, coordinated efforts from diverse stakeholders, including public and private sectors, regional organizations, and international partners, can lead to a more resilient and secure energy future for Southeast Asia.