Africa is on track to install a record 17 GW of solar capacity in 2026, representing a 45% year-on-year increase and marking the third consecutive year of record solar installations on the continent, according to an analysis by global energy think tank Ember in collaboration with African Tech Futures Lab.
The analysis indicates that solar growth is broadening beyond established markets, with 36 of Africa’s 54 countries expected to install record volumes of solar capacity in 2026.
Year-on-year solar installations are projected to increase by more than 100% in 19 countries. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is expected to record the strongest growth at 544%, followed by Zimbabwe at 282% and Egypt at 176%.
South Africa, which previously accounted for more than half of Africa’s solar imports, is expected to represent less than one-fifth of total installations in 2026, highlighting the increasing geographic spread of solar deployment across the continent.
Solar Growth Could Meet Rising Electricity Demand
The 17 GW of new solar capacity expected to be installed in 2026 could generate approximately 23 TWh of electricity annually, enough to match Africa’s average annual electricity demand growth over the past decade.
In more than half of Africa’s 54 countries, solar generation growth is expected to exceed the historical rate of electricity demand growth.
Ten countries are projected to see new solar capacity add more than 10% to their annual electricity generation in 2026. Sierra Leone is expected to record the largest increase at 97%, followed by Togo at 24%, Somalia and Djibouti at 21% each, and the DRC and Comoros at 14% each.
Other countries on the list include Namibia and Liberia at 12% each, Chad at 11% and Lesotho at 10%.
Africa’s Solar Manufacturing Capacity to Quadruple
Africa’s solar panel manufacturing capacity is also expected to quadruple to around 3.5 GW in 2026, supported by new manufacturing facilities coming online in Egypt and Tanzania.
However, the majority of this manufacturing output is expected to be exported to the United States. Meanwhile, 94% of solar panels installed across Africa are still imported from China, underscoring the continent’s continued reliance on Chinese solar equipment.
Distributed Solar Remains Underreported
The analysis estimates that approximately 75% of solar capacity added across Africa between 2023 and 2025 came from distributed solar, a segment that is largely absent from official national and international statistics.
Solar deployment data remains limited across the continent. Only South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania currently publish solar capacity data quarterly or more frequently. Official national solar capacity data is available for only 36 of Africa’s 54 countries, and just 14 countries had reported data for 2025.
Ember and African Tech Futures Lab said the available figures are likely to underestimate actual solar installations.
At least 15 African countries now have solar registration and permitting systems at an advanced stage, with several already operational. The organisations said stronger data collection and reporting systems will be important for governments, grid operators and regulators to effectively plan for the continent’s rapidly expanding solar market.
Dave Jones, Chief Analyst at Ember, said falling solar panel costs and increasingly attractive economics are driving adoption across African countries, while improved data collection would help governments better understand and plan for the pace of solar growth.
Discover more from SolarQuarter
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
