Africa Unlikely to Reach 50% Renewable Energy Share by 2035 Amid Structural Constraints: Research and Markets Report

A new industry report released by Research and Markets indicates that Africa’s energy transition is progressing steadily but remains constrained by structural, financial, and infrastructural challenges, with the region unlikely to achieve a 50% renewable energy share in either installed capacity or power generation by 2035.

Titled “Africa Energy Transition – Sectors and Companies Driving Development – 2026,” the report highlights that while renewable energy capacity is expanding, it continues to grow alongside fossil fuels rather than replacing them. Rising electricity demand, grid instability, and the need for dispatchable power sources—particularly gas—are expected to sustain fossil fuel dependence across the continent.

Renewable energy is projected to account for approximately 46% of Africa’s total installed power capacity by 2035, up from 28% in 2025. However, its contribution to actual power generation is expected to remain below the halfway mark, underscoring limitations in grid integration and storage capacity. In 2025, renewables contributed around 25% to the region’s power generation mix.

The report emphasizes that investments in enabling infrastructure—especially energy storage and grid modernization—are underway but remain concentrated in a limited number of markets, with South Africa leading deployment. Despite gradual growth, Africa accounted for only 2% of global energy storage capacity in 2025, reflecting a significant gap compared to global peers.

Emerging energy transition technologies, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable fuels, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and low-carbon hydrogen, remain at early stages of development. EV adoption, while showing signs of growth, continues to face affordability challenges, limited charging infrastructure, and weak policy support. However, increasing Chinese investments in vehicle manufacturing, local assembly, and financing could enhance accessibility and drive gradual adoption over the next decade.

In the hydrogen segment, Africa holds significant potential, ranking among the top regions globally for planned low-carbon hydrogen capacity. However, nearly all projects remain in early development stages, with less than 0.1% of capacity currently operational. Weak demand signals from key export markets, particularly Europe, continue to delay project execution.

Similarly, CCUS deployment across the continent remains nascent, with only a handful of projects in development. While Africa possesses substantial geological potential for CO₂ storage in saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs, limited infrastructure and site-level investment continue to hinder progress.

The report also highlights emerging opportunities in renewable fuels, particularly sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), supported by strategic partnerships. Initiatives led by organizations such as the African Development Bank, in collaboration with global partners, are expected to unlock new investment avenues in this segment.

Despite these challenges, certain countries are making notable progress. Ethiopia stands out as the only nation projected to maintain 100% renewable power generation through 2035, largely driven by its extensive hydropower resources.

The report further notes that Africa’s emissions have continued to rise, reaching approximately 1.5 GtCO₂e in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 2% since 2000. This trend underscores the urgency of accelerating clean energy deployment while addressing systemic barriers such as financing gaps, policy inconsistencies, and infrastructure limitations.

Overall, the findings position Africa as a high-potential yet complex energy transition market, where renewable expansion, energy access, and economic growth must be balanced through sustained investment and policy support.