Wood Mackenzie Warns EU Could Miss 2030 Carbon Storage Target By At Least 17.5 Million Tonnes Per Year

The European Union is at risk of missing its legally mandated carbon capture and storage (CCS) target by a significant margin, according to a new analysis by Wood Mackenzie. The study estimates that the EU could fall short by at least 17.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030, even if every CCS project currently in advanced development is completed on schedule.

This would leave the bloc approximately 35% below its Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) target of 50 mtpa of operational carbon storage capacity by the end of the decade.The analysis was commissioned by ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, and OMV Petrom and represents Wood Mackenzie’s second major assessment of Europe’s CCS sector.

While the firm’s earlier report focused primarily on the availability and feasibility of storage sites, the latest study examines the entire CCS ecosystem, including carbon capture, transportation infrastructure, and storage facilities. The report argues that these three elements are deeply interconnected and that progress in one area is impossible without corresponding developments in the others.

According to the findings, Europe is currently expected to achieve around 32.5 mtpa of storage capacity by 2030, well below the NZIA requirement. The situation becomes even more challenging when likely project delays, infrastructure bottlenecks, and commercial uncertainties are taken into account.

Wood Mackenzie notes that the CCS industry is attempting to build a large-scale, cross-border network almost from scratch, making coordination across the value chain essential.The report suggests that the NZIA was designed to solve a long-standing challenge in the CCS industry. Traditionally, storage developers have been reluctant to invest without guaranteed carbon volumes, while industrial emitters have hesitated to commit to capture projects without confirmed storage solutions.

To break this deadlock, the legislation mandated the development of storage capacity ahead of demand. However, Wood Mackenzie believes that this approach has created a different imbalance, where storage operators are expected to move forward even though capture projects and transport infrastructure are developing under separate frameworks and timelines.A major concern highlighted in the study is the fragmented nature of the CCS value chain.

Most projects rely on a hub model involving multiple stakeholders, each responsible for different parts of the system. Storage developers need confidence that captured carbon will reach their facilities, transport providers require sufficient volumes to justify investment, and industrial emitters need certainty that storage services will be available when their capture projects begin operating. When any one of these components falls behind, progress across the entire chain can stall.

The report also points to insufficient carbon capture capacity as a significant obstacle. The EU’s planned capture pipeline currently totals 36.5 mtpa, which is already below the storage target set under the NZIA. Furthermore, around 26 mtpa of planned capture capacity does not yet have confirmed storage arrangements. Of this amount, approximately 11 mtpa is considered at risk of becoming stranded, largely because these projects are located far from planned carbon transport networks or existing CO₂ infrastructure.

France and Germany account for a large share of this potentially stranded capacity.Project delays are adding further pressure. Wood Mackenzie found that storage developments across Europe are experiencing average delays of around 1.5 years, with timelines continuing to slip. One of the most prominent examples is the Porthos project, which is now expected to begin operations in the second half of 2027, roughly three years later than originally planned.

Such delays reduce the likelihood that sufficient storage capacity will be operational by the 2030 deadline.The economic case for CCS also remains challenging. According to Wood Mackenzie’s modelling, carbon prices under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) are expected to remain below the levelised cost of CCS for many projects approaching final investment decisions.

While the ETS helps companies avoid emissions compliance costs, it does not necessarily provide the predictable revenue streams needed to support large-scale investments. In addition, carbon pricing remains exposed to both market volatility and political uncertainty, making long-term investment decisions more difficult.

The report highlights several key figures that underline the scale of the challenge. Less than 6% of the storage capacity targeted under the NZIA is currently operational or under construction, indicating how much work remains to be done. To stay on track, Europe would need a five-fold increase in storage project final investment decisions between 2026 and 2028.

At present, only 4 mtpa of capture capacity has reached final investment decision and secured contractual links to EU storage facilities, illustrating the limited number of projects that have progressed to a bankable stage.The study also draws attention to funding and policy mismatches within the EU framework. NZIA obligations are based largely on oil and gas production levels rather than industrial emissions.

As a result, some countries that are required to contribute storage capacity have little or no storage development planned before 2031 and have received relatively limited support from EU funding mechanisms. At the same time, countries such as Sweden and Spain have secured substantial funding through the EU Innovation Fund despite having neither NZIA storage obligations nor significant pre-2031 storage capacity in development.

Another example cited in the report is the Antwerp@C initiative, which has received more than €730 million in EU funding. Despite this significant financial support, none of the associated projects have yet reached final investment decision, highlighting the broader challenges facing CCS deployment across Europe.

Wood Mackenzie concludes that the current policy framework places considerable responsibility on storage developers while offering fewer obligations for capture and transport operators. Storage companies are legally required to develop capacity, but they often lack the guaranteed carbon volumes and infrastructure commitments needed to justify investment.

Without stronger coordination across capture, transport, and storage, the report warns that Europe may struggle to build the integrated CCS ecosystem required to meet its climate objectives and achieve the NZIA target by 2030.