US Crude Prices Fall as Refined Fuel Supply Tightens Across US and Europe

US crude oil prices came under pressure after the latest inventory data showed a sharp build in domestic crude stocks, while supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remain tight across the US and Europe. The contrasting trends point to a market where crude availability is improving even as refined products face growing supply pressure, according to a market update from Rystad Energy.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 17.4 million barrels in the week ending August 7, reaching 424.4 million barrels. Crude imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd), up 1.14 million bpd from the previous week. Refineries operated at 96.2% of capacity, with crude inputs averaging 17.2 million bpd.

Despite the large crude build, refined product inventories remain comparatively tight. EIA data showed US gasoline stocks declining by 1 million barrels and standing about 6% below their five-year seasonal average. Distillate inventories fell slightly and remained approximately 12% below the five-year average. Jet fuel demand, measured by product supplied, was 3.8% higher over the latest four-week period compared with the same period last year.

The situation is also tightening in Europe. At the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, gasoil stocks are running at around 75% of their opening 2026 level, while gasoline stocks have fallen to roughly 63%. Jet fuel inventories are the most depleted, at approximately 58% of their level at the start of the year.

Susan Bell, Senior Vice President, Commodity Markets, Oil at Rystad Energy, said the crude inventory build sends a bearish signal for oil prices, but strong refining margins show that the refined-products market remains constrained. High crack spreads—the difference between refined product prices and crude costs—reflect limited physical supplies of key transportation fuels.

The pressure follows broader Middle East supply disruptions that have affected crude and refined-product flows. The Strait of Hormuz disruption earlier this year removed significant volumes from global markets, leaving the system structurally short of both crude and refined products.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide support to crude prices despite the bearish US inventory signal. Risks linked to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi activity and disruptions to Caspian crude flows remain important factors for global supply.

For consumers, tight refined-product availability could be particularly significant. Strong gasoline, diesel and jet fuel crack spreads may keep fuel prices elevated even if crude prices weaken temporarily. The market is therefore increasingly shifting from an initial crude supply shock toward a broader refined-product supply challenge, with potential implications for motorists, airlines, businesses and inflation.