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In a recent report, Poland’s Institute of Renewable Energy (IEO) confirmed a high solar PV target over the next five years. GlobalData predicts that achiving this target would mean significant annual installations, which – going by the current scenario – is a little optimistic. However, if achieved, this would see a rapid growth of the sector.
Somik Das, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “GlobalData expects solar PV to form more than 3.5% of the country’s capacity installation this year, with potential to double by 2025. The estimates suggest that Poland’s solar PV sector would need around 1GW installation every year to reach approximately 8GW by 2025. This is likely to make Poland the fastest-growing solar PV market in the eastern European region over the next decade, and the country would need to curb coal-based generation – on which it is currently overly dependent. This could have serious consequences for those employed in the coal-based generation sector.”
To complement the growth achieved in the small-scale segment, the large-scale solar PV projects awarded contracts in auctions held in 2018-19 are expected to meet an extended deadline of coming online by 2021. The years 2021 and 2022 are likely to mark the emergence of an ‘investment boom’ in the country’s solar PV sector.
Das added: “The emergence of the small-scale segment has left behind previous estimates of approximately 700MW of solar PV installation in 2020 – although achieving the 7.8GW mark by 2025 will also need participation from the utility-scale projects. By the end of 2025, it is expected that the small-scale and utility-scale installation would have an equal percentage share in the cumulative solar PV capacity.”