BNEF Analysis Unveils Path to Triple Global Renewables by 2030 at UN Climate Summit

In a landmark move, world leaders are intensifying efforts to triple the global installation of renewable energy capacity by 2030, a goal that equates to a staggering 11 terawatts of renewable capacity. This ambitious objective, essential for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and aligning with Paris Agreement climate goals, will take centre stage at the upcoming United Nations climate summit in the United Arab Emirates. The COP28 Presidency is actively seeking international consensus on this critical initiative, as revealed in the latest analysis from BloombergNEF (BNEF).

The report titled Tripling Global Renewables by 2030: Hard, Fast, and Achievable by BNEF underscores the urgency of concerted global actions to eliminate bottlenecks and facilitate a rapid transition to renewable energy sources. Despite wind and solar being the most cost-effective new generation options in most countries, the forecast falls short of the ambitious 2030 target.

BNEF’s projections indicate that the solar component of the goal is likely to be met, but achieving the required wind build will necessitate collaborative efforts from both public and private sector leaders. The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced mix of technologies, as an overreliance on solar could compromise the overall impact on electricity generation and emissions reductions.

Jenny Chase, BNEF’s solar specialist and co-author of the report, cautioned against solely focusing on solar, stating, “Solar is cheap and easy, and the world could triple capacity using solar alone. But leaving other renewables behind wouldn’t be a good outcome for climate impacts.” 

BloombergNEF’s Net-Zero Scenario outlines a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with renewable energy contributing 62% of all emissions reductions by 2030. The electrification of end-use sectors further contributes 15% of total carbon abatement. To align with these goals, the proposed COP28 pledge must address barriers hindering renewable energy developers, encourage competitive auctions, and promote corporate power purchase agreements.

Meredith Annex, BNEF’s Head of Clean Power and co-author of the report emphasized the importance of government intervention, stating, “Renewables are low-cost, and direct subsidy is no longer what is needed to speed up deployment. Governments and regulators have a limited window of time to help the industry get on track.”

The contributions of individual countries toward this global initiative will vary, with early adopters like China, the US, and Europe aiming to triple their renewable capacity. In contrast, regions with a smaller renewable base, such as south and southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, will need to more than triple their capacity by 2030. For these markets, leveraging affordable renewable power is crucial not only for energy transition but also for expanding energy access to millions.

Markets like Brazil, already deriving most of their power from renewable or low-carbon sources, will contribute less to the global goal. However, integrating additional renewable energy resources remains critical to further decarbonize various sectors and address the final 10-30% of emissions from the electricity sector.