Italy’s Energy Strategy at a Crossroads: The Need for a Shift from Gas to Renewables

Italy stands prominently in the European Union’s energy landscape, not just for its scenic beauty but also for its significant reliance on gas-fired power generation. This approach has positioned Italy at a critical juncture, as highlighted in an analysis by Jonathan Bruegel and Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) Europe team.

According to Bruegel and Jaller-Makarewicz, Italy’s energy mix is heavily skewed towards natural gas, with gas-fired power accounting for about 50% of its total production—almost three times the EU average. This not only underscores Italy’s substantial infrastructure dedicated to gas but also reflects a broader policy trend that supports gas over renewable energy sources.

Despite holding the position of the EU’s fifth-largest renewable energy producer, Italy’s renewable output is significantly lower than that of leaders like Germany. The IEEFA analysts point out that the Italian government’s ambitious targets for expanding solar and wind capacities—aiming for 45 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 17.3 GW of wind by 2025—are not supported by the current pace of development. This mismatch raises concerns about Italy’s ability to meet these goals, given the historical lag in renewable energy expansion.

The analysis also sheds light on Italy’s 2023 electricity production pattern, which Bruegel and Jaller-Makarewicz describe as lacking a clear direction, in stark contrast to other major EU countries that have been successfully increasing their renewable energy share while decreasing reliance on gas.

In their view, the global shift towards renewable energy, as emphasized at the COP28 climate summit, is crucial. Yet, Italy’s current trajectory indicates a planned increase to only 30% renewable energy by 2030, which falls short of the more aggressive transitions seen in other EU nations.

Bruegel and Jaller-Makarewicz also criticize the Italian government’s strategy to make Italy a major EU gas hub, arguing that this undermines the broader EU commitment to reducing fossil fuel dependence. They advocate for enhanced promotion of alternative technologies like pumped storage hydropower and utility-scale batteries, which could provide the necessary flexibility in the power system without the carbon footprint of gas.

Overall, the IEEFA Europe team’s analysis paints a picture of an Italy at a crossroads, where the path chosen today—between continuing gas dependence or pivoting to renewable energy—will have long-lasting impacts on its energy landscape and its alignment with global climate goals.