Solar Power At A Crossroads: Global Growth Strong But 2030 Net Zero Target Faces Hurdles

At the COP28 summit in 2023, nearly 200 countries agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, aiming to grow from 3.4 TW in 2022 to around 11 TW. While this goal reflects strong international consensus on curbing global warming to below 1.5°C, the path forward remains uncertain. According to InfoLink Consulting’s latest white paper, the world is projected to reach nearly 10.5 TW of renewable energy by 2030 if current policy trends continue. Solar PV and energy storage systems are expected to contribute most to this expansion. By the end of the decade, solar installations could reach between 6.3 and 6.75 TWdc, with wind contributing 2.1 TW. However, this progress is heavily dependent on the resilience and stability of solar and energy storage supply chains.

In 2024, global solar PV module demand hit a record 580 GWdc, growing 26% from 2023. China led this surge, accounting for 320 GWdc of demand. The country continues to dominate the global solar market, with projections indicating its demand will exceed 370 GWdc by 2030. Europe followed with 80 GWdc in 2024, although growth slowed to 3% due to economic pressures and political instability. In the U.S., demand dropped 10% to 42 GWdc, largely due to policy uncertainty under the new Trump administration, which reversed key climate commitments and suspended funding for the Inflation Reduction Act. India, on the other hand, experienced a 67% jump in demand to 30 GWdc, driven by strong policy support, including the PM-KUSUM and PLI schemes.

Emerging markets have begun playing a crucial role in shaping global demand. The Middle East saw 34 GWdc in 2024, with projections suggesting it could surpass 70 GWdc by 2030. Saudi Arabia’s 5.5 GW solar deal with ACWA Power marked a significant boost for the region. Latin America recorded 28 GWdc, with Brazil remaining the largest market despite recent tariff hikes. Southeast Asia saw 9 GWdc in 2024, with countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam rolling out favorable policies that could double demand by 2030.

The global supply chain experienced major transformations in 2024. Overcapacity issues led to a slowdown in upstream expansions and the phasing out of outdated downstream production. One notable development was the widespread adoption of the 182*210mm wafer format, which is now expected to become the industry standard. Technology-wise, TOPCon cells gained significant market share, reaching 1,130 GW of capacity by the end of the year, with further dominance projected in 2025.

The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) remained a crucial factor in determining project viability. In China, the LCOE for ground-mounted solar projects in 2024 ranged between USD 19.72 and 33.42 per MWh, and is expected to decline further due to falling module prices and improved efficiency. Europe’s LCOE also dropped, benefiting from Chinese imports, while the U.S. faced the highest costs due to trade barriers and labor expenses, with LCOE ranging from USD 41.21 to 89.00 per MWh. The suspension of IRA funding adds to the uncertainty in the U.S. market outlook.

Despite a slight slowdown in growth for mature markets, the overall outlook remains positive. From 2024 to 2030, InfoLink forecasts an annual module demand growth of 4–7.5%, reaching between 750–900 GWdc by 2030. However, growth will depend on overcoming challenges such as trade barriers, grid integration, land acquisition, and stable policy support.

The report emphasizes that technology advancement alone won’t be enough to meet the 2030 renewable energy target. A robust and adaptable supply chain is critical. Markets like China, India, and the Middle East are expected to set the pace in installations, while innovations in module formats and battery storage will shape cost efficiencies.

The next five years are considered a golden window for building resilient supply chains that can withstand geopolitical shifts and support the energy transition. Without coordinated policy efforts, robust infrastructure, and secure supply networks, the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity may remain out of reach. InfoLink’s white paper ultimately calls for unified action, deeper market cooperation, and strategic investment to turn today’s commitments into tomorrow’s achievements.