Solar Power Set To Overtake Coal Generation In Texas ERCOT Grid By 2026 – EIA

Electricity generation from solar energy is expected to surpass coal-fired power generation for the first time in 2026 within the electricity grid managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. The development marks a major milestone in Texas’ ongoing transition toward renewable energy as utility-scale solar projects continue to expand rapidly across the state.

Forecasts indicate that solar power generation in ERCOT could reach nearly 78 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh) in 2026, while coal-based generation is expected to decline to around 60 BkWh. The shift highlights the increasing role of solar energy in meeting Texas’s rising electricity demand and reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuel-based power sources.

Over the past few years, utility-scale solar installations in Texas have grown steadily. From 2021 to 2025, solar’s contribution to ERCOT’s electricity generation mix increased significantly from 4% to 12%. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19% to 13%. Natural gas, however, remains the largest source of electricity generation in the region, accounting for an average of 44% of the total power mix during those years.

Texas is expected to remain the leading market for solar expansion in the United States. Around 40% of all solar capacity additions planned nationwide in 2026 are projected to come from Texas alone. One of the major projects expected to begin operations this year is the Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Energy Storage System project. With an estimated capacity of 837 megawatts (MW), it is expected to become one of the largest solar photovoltaic projects scheduled to come online in 2026.

At the same time, there are currently no announced plans to build new coal-fired power plants within the ERCOT region. This further reflects the changing energy landscape in Texas, where investments are increasingly moving toward renewable energy and battery storage technologies.

Solar generation had already started outperforming coal generation on a monthly basis in 2025. In March 2025, solar generation in ERCOT reached 4.33 BkWh, slightly exceeding coal generation, which stood at 4.16 BkWh. Solar continued to remain ahead of coal through August that year. In 2026, solar is expected to exceed coal generation from March through November, with coal likely to regain a slight lead only in December. Looking ahead to 2027, solar power is forecast to outperform coal generation during almost the entire year except for January and December.

By 2027, annual solar generation in ERCOT is projected to rise further to 99 BkWh, compared with 66 BkWh from coal. Continued growth in electricity demand from data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial activities, and oil and gas operations is expected to support further expansion of renewable energy capacity across Texas.