Rising geopolitical tensions, growing global energy demand and increasing volatility in fossil fuel markets are reshaping the global energy system. These pressures are driving a new phase of the energy transition, one that relies heavily on electrification, renewable energy and a faster shift away from fossil fuels.
In its latest report, Transitioning away from fossil fuels: A roadmap based on renewables, electrification and grid enhancement, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) warns that despite current efforts focused on energy security, today’s energy systems are still not structurally prepared to meet the 1.5°C climate target.
The report, released in collaboration with the COP30 Presidency of Brazil ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, stresses that the global goals of tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 remain essential. However, these goals alone will not be enough to deliver the full energy transition.
As energy demand increases rapidly across transport, industry, buildings and digital technologies, countries must focus on electrifying these sectors while steadily reducing their reliance on fossil fuels.According to IRENA’s revised 1.5°C Scenario in its upcoming World Energy Transition Outlook, electricity’s share in global final energy consumption is expected to rise from 23% today to 35% by 2035, and to more than 50% by 2050.
Most of this increased demand will be met by renewable energy. At the same time, fossil fuels, which currently supply around 80% of global energy, are projected to fall to about 50% by 2035 and 20% or less by 2050.IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera emphasized that the world must adjust to this new energy reality. He noted that the challenge goes beyond expanding renewables and improving energy efficiency; it requires transforming entire energy systems and reducing fossil fuel use across all parts of the economy.
Electrification and the phase-out of fossil fuels, he said, must progress together.La Camera also highlighted that electrification powered by renewable energy delivers multiple benefits: it helps reduce emissions, strengthens energy security by reducing dependence on imported fuels, and enhances economic competitiveness through new industrial opportunities and innovation. Furthermore, affordable renewable energy helps keep electricity prices manageable for households and industries.
The report identifies electrification as the main long-term driver behind the decline of fossil fuel use in all major end-use sectors. Transitioning away from fossil fuels will require a major restructuring of energy infrastructure and investment priorities. Countries must scale up investment in electricity grids, storage solutions and system flexibility to guarantee reliable, secure and affordable power systems that can meet rising demand.Infrastructure, however, is emerging as a major bottleneck.
Around 2,500 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity are currently waiting to be connected to power grids. Without streamlined permitting processes and much larger levels of investment, the necessary upgrades for 2035 and 2050 will not be achieved. IRENA estimates that grid investment needs will reach about USD 1.2 trillion per year on average—more than double the USD 0.5 trillion expected to be invested in 2025.
Significant additional investments will also be needed to build supply chains for hydrogen and other alternative fuels. End-use sectors will require major upgrades, including EV charging infrastructure, building retrofits for electric heating and cooling, and new technologies for industrial electrification.La Camera concluded that the speed at which fossil fuels are phased out will ultimately depend on how quickly economies can electrify.
To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, there must be a clear and coordinated global direction. He emphasized that IRENA’s data supports setting a global electrification target for 2035, along with specific targets for grid expansion and system flexibility.The report also stresses the importance of tracking progress on electrification, grid improvements and fossil fuel reduction to help guide global cooperation.At COP28, the UAE Consensus and the First Global Stocktake called for tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
They also laid the foundation for the transition away from fossil fuels. Building on this, the Transition Away From Fossil Fuels (TAFF) roadmap, launched by the Brazilian COP30 Presidency and supported by IRENA, provides a pathway to advance climate action, energy security and economic development together.IRENA has reaffirmed its readiness to support international dialogue ahead of COP31 in Antalya and to assist countries through its analysis, partnerships and country-level engagement.
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