A new report from Wood Mackenzie, titled ‘EU27: Energy Transition Outlook,’ indicates that the European Union (EU) is unlikely to meet its ambitious climate targets until the 2060s, despite a unified commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This delay is attributed to a focus on energy security and economic stability, which has overshadowed the urgency of climate goals. However, the report also highlights areas where targeted investment and policy commitment could accelerate the transition, particularly in the realms of renewable energy, hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage (CCUS) technologies.
Wood Mackenzie’s research, part of their Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) series, projects the EU’s emissions to be significantly above its net zero pledges by 2050, with an expected shortfall of 684 million tonnes per annum. This assessment comes despite the EU’s leadership in setting ambitious, legally binding climate targets under the European Green Deal. For the EU to contribute effectively to global net zero goals, it would need to reach net zero emissions by 2048, compensating for regions that will continue to emit into the next decade.
The report underlines the importance of ramping up renewable energy sources, as electricity demand within the EU is predicted to more than double, with renewables expected to constitute 82% of domestic power supply by 2050. Achieving this will require an additional 10 gigawatts of renewable capacity annually, a target that faces challenges due to infrastructure bottlenecks and the need for more significant support in smaller economies.
In terms of new technologies, hydrogen is set to play a crucial role in reducing industrial emissions, with the EU’s Hydrogen Bank launching a significant auction to stimulate the sector. Similarly, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies are identified as critical for addressing hard-to-abate sectors, with significant investments and projects already underway.
The report also highlights the disparities in progress among EU member states, with countries like Germany and the Nordic nations setting more aggressive targets. The varied approaches to nuclear power, with some countries expanding their nuclear capabilities and others phasing it out, further illustrate the diverse strategies within the EU.
In conclusion, while the EU faces significant challenges in meeting its climate targets on time, there are clear pathways to accelerate the energy transition. This will require concerted effort, substantial investment, and steadfast policy support, particularly in developing and deploying key technologies like renewable energy sources, hydrogen, and CCUS.
