Facing The Future: The Caucasus And Central Asia’s Struggle To Transition To Renewable Energy Ahead Of COP29

The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region is under scrutiny as the COP29 climate conference, hosted by Azerbaijan, highlights its slow transition to renewable energy. The Global Energy Monitor’s (GEM) latest report reveals that fossil fuels dominate the energy landscape, with over three times the capacity of fossil-based projects under development compared to renewables like wind and solar.

Across eight countries in the region, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Kazakhstan, fossil fuels account for most existing and new energy projects. Oil and gas plants dominate, with 24 GW under development, far surpassing the 3.5 GW of wind and solar capacity currently under construction. Kazakhstan alone relies heavily on coal, which powers 67% of its electricity, while Azerbaijan’s energy system is predominantly gas-based, supplying over 90% of its electricity.

Despite the vast technical potential for wind and solar, particularly in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, progress remains limited. Kazakhstan has pioneered renewable energy auctions, doubling its wind and solar capacity compared to other CCA countries. Uzbekistan follows closely, attracting foreign investment for large-scale solar projects. However, challenges such as aging infrastructure, seasonal water shortages affecting hydropower, and a lack of financial resources hinder development.

Azerbaijan’s renewable energy plans are especially modest. Current projects aim to add only 2 GW by 2027, sufficient to achieve a 30% renewable energy share. Plans for additional projects remain vague, casting doubt on the nation’s ability to meet its long-term goals. Armenia and Georgia, while targeting high shares of renewables by 2030, rely heavily on large hydropower projects, many of which face environmental concerns and long construction timelines.

The GEM report underscores the urgent need for course correction. It calls for regional cooperation, enhanced policies, and investment in cleaner technologies to align with global climate goals. The next 100 days of COP29’s presidency will be pivotal in determining whether the CCA region can shift towards a sustainable energy future.