Vietnam could meet its rapidly growing electricity demand more economically and efficiently by prioritising domestic solar and wind energy over imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The analysis highlights rising LNG prices, increasing construction costs, and prolonged equipment delivery timelines as major challenges to the country’s planned expansion of gas-fired power generation.
Under Vietnam’s revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), the government aims to develop 22.5 GW of LNG-fired power generation capacity by 2030. However, IEEFA estimates that operating the full planned capacity could require annual LNG imports valued between USD 15.5 billion and USD 23.6 billion, potentially increasing Vietnam’s energy import expenditure by approximately 66% to 106%.
The report warns that greater dependence on imported LNG could expose Vietnam’s electricity sector to international fuel price volatility and geopolitical supply disruptions. Global energy market instability following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Middle East conflict in 2026 has demonstrated the vulnerability of LNG-dependent economies to sudden price increases.
Paige Nguyen, Director, Asia, at IEEFA and co-author of the report, stated that while Vietnam cannot control global energy prices or geopolitical disruptions, it can reduce its exposure by prioritising domestic renewable energy resources. She emphasised that expanding solar and wind generation could improve energy security while limiting long-term electricity costs.
Rising LNG Prices and Construction Costs Challenge Gas-Fired Power Economics
According to IEEFA, the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) spot LNG price averaged USD 18.74 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) through August 2026 following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, compared with slightly below USD 12/MMBtu between January 2024 and the beginning of the conflict.
For a 1,500 MW LNG-fired power plant, comparable in capacity to PetroVietnam Power’s Nhon Trach 3 and 4 complex, the increase in LNG prices could raise annual fuel expenditure by approximately 50%, from USD 716 million to USD 1.07 billion.
Higher equipment and construction costs are adding further financial pressure. IEEFA reports that capital costs for utility-scale combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants have increased from approximately USD 700–1,000 per kilowatt in the early 2020s to USD 2,100–2,500 per kilowatt.
As a result, the estimated cost of LNG-fired electricity generation in Vietnam currently ranges between VND 3,780 and VND 4,860 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), equivalent to approximately USD 140–180 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
These generation costs are approximately 14% to 46% higher than Vietnam’s LNG electricity ceiling tariff of VND 3,327/kWh. The ceiling tariff itself exceeds the country’s average retail electricity price of VND 2,204/kWh.
Grant Hauber, Strategic Energy Finance Advisor, Asia, at IEEFA, warned that rising fuel and generation costs could place additional financial pressure on state-owned utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN), which had accumulated losses of approximately USD 1.7 billion by the end of 2024.
The changing economic environment is already influencing investment decisions. In March 2026, Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup proposed replacing its planned 4.8 GW LNG power project in Hai Phong with a combination of solar, wind, and battery energy storage systems, citing rising LNG prices.
Solar and Wind Offer Lower-Cost Alternatives
IEEFA’s analysis indicates that domestic renewable energy projects could deliver electricity at substantially lower costs than LNG-fired generation.
The estimated levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar projects in Vietnam ranges between VND 1,328 and VND 1,625/kWh, approximately 51% to 60% below the LNG electricity ceiling tariff.
Onshore wind projects offer an even lower estimated generation cost of VND 1,026–1,412/kWh, representing a 58% to 69% reduction compared with the LNG tariff ceiling.
Unlike gas-fired power plants, solar and wind installations do not require ongoing fuel purchases, reducing exposure to international commodity price fluctuations and providing greater long-term electricity cost predictability.
The report also highlights the shorter development timelines associated with renewable energy projects. Utility-scale solar installations can begin operations in as little as six months, while wind projects may start generating electricity approximately one year after construction begins.
In comparison, global shortages of gas turbines and transformers have extended equipment delivery periods for LNG-fired projects to approximately 48–60 months. Additional construction timelines of 30–36 months could delay the commissioning of proposed LNG power plants into the 2030s.
Vietnam’s Renewable Energy Growth Provides Strong Foundation
Vietnam has already demonstrated significant renewable energy development capabilities. Between 2018 and 2023, the country’s installed solar and wind capacity expanded from negligible levels to more than 21 GW, supported by 20-year feed-in tariff mechanisms.
IEEFA noted that this rapid expansion provides a strong foundation for the next phase of Vietnam’s electricity sector development.
The report emphasises that domestic renewable energy resources could help the country address rising electricity demand while reducing dependence on imported fuels and improving the affordability of electricity generation.
However, achieving further renewable energy growth will require consistent policy support, expanded grid infrastructure, and improved investment conditions.
Energy Storage and Grid Modernisation Identified as Key Priorities
To strengthen Vietnam’s power sector and reduce exposure to LNG price volatility, IEEFA recommends redirecting a greater proportion of near-term electricity investments toward domestic solar and wind projects.
The report also calls for a reassessment of the country’s 22.5 GW LNG development target, taking into account changing fuel prices, construction costs, equipment availability, and long-term electricity requirements.
A major recommendation involves accelerating investment in battery energy storage systems (BESS), transmission infrastructure, and grid flexibility technologies to support higher levels of renewable energy integration.
According to the analysis, expanding energy storage and modernising electricity networks would help reduce grid congestion, minimise renewable energy curtailment, and improve power system reliability as variable solar and wind generation capacity increases.
IEEFA further recommends establishing stable and bankable investment frameworks through transparent procurement mechanisms, revised feed-in tariffs, competitive renewable energy auctions, and expanded Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) arrangements.
These measures could encourage greater private-sector participation and accelerate the development of renewable energy infrastructure.
The report concludes that Vietnam has an opportunity to strengthen its long-term energy security and reduce electricity generation costs by prioritising domestic renewable energy development, supported by grid upgrades and energy storage investments.
With solar and wind technologies offering lower generation costs and shorter deployment timelines than LNG-fired power plants, IEEFA’s findings suggest that a greater focus on renewable energy could help Vietnam meet its growing electricity requirements while reducing financial risks associated with imported fossil fuels.