Wood Mackenzie Report: EU Faces Delay in Meeting Climate Targets Until 2060s, Focus Shifts to Energy Security and Economic Stability

A recent report from Wood Mackenzie in partnership with the Coalition for Community Solar Access reveals that despite ambitious goals within the European Union (EU), meeting climate targets will likely be postponed until the 2060s. The report emphasizes a shift in focus towards ensuring energy security and economic stability. While the uptake of renewables and electrification is progressing steadily, urgent action is needed to advance nascent technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture.

Titled “EU27: Energy Transition Outlook,” the report forms part of Wood Mackenzie’s ETO research series, which outlines three routes through the global energy transition with varying levels of ambition.

Current projections suggest that the EU’s emissions will fall short of its net zero pledges, reaching 684 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by 2050. Despite member unity to meet the EU’s 2050 net zero target under the European Green Deal, achieving global net zero goals would require reaching net zero by 2048.

Lindsey Entwistle, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report, commented on the EU’s transition, stating that while ambitious targets are in place, recent challenges have shifted focus towards energy security and economic stability. However, efforts are being made to streamline policy and strengthen cross-border infrastructure for power, carbon capture, and low-carbon hydrogen.

Renewables rollout is progressing but faces constraints, with electricity demand expected to increase significantly by 2050. The report highlights the need for additional renewables capacity, particularly to enable sufficient electrification of demand sectors. Countries with smaller economies require support to fund critical infrastructure and promote low-carbon power supply.

In terms of new technologies, hydrogen and carbon capture are receiving varying levels of support. Hydrogen is projected to play a significant role in industrial energy demand, displacing fossil fuel consumption and reducing CO2 emissions. The EU’s focus on hydrogen infrastructure projects and investments reflects its commitment to competing in the global hydrogen economy.

Carbon capture and storage (CCUS) are also gaining attention, with several projects underway to develop infrastructure for cross-border carbon transport and storage. While the EU has set ambitious targets for CCUS, further efforts are needed to scale up deployment and facilitate widespread adoption.

Progress towards climate targets varies among EU members, with countries like Germany and the Nordic nations setting more ambitious goals. However, there is a need for accelerated efforts across the EU to achieve global net zero by 2050.

The report also highlights differences in nuclear power policy among EU members, with some countries investing in new nuclear plants while others are phasing out nuclear energy entirely.

Overall, the EU faces challenges in meeting its climate targets but remains committed to advancing its energy transition while ensuring energy security and economic stability.